Abstract: In Liberia, many of the agricultural households cultivate cassava for either sustenance purposes, or to generate farm income. Many of the concentrated cassava farmers reside in Nimba, a north-eastern County that borders two other economies: the Republics of Cote D’Ivoire and Guinea. With a high demand for cassava output and products in emerging Asian markets coupled with an objective of the Liberia agriculture policies to increase the competitiveness of valued agriculture crops; there is a need to examine the level of resource-use efficiency for many agriculture crops. However, there is a scarcity of information on the efficiency of many agriculture crops, including cassava. Hence the study applying an output-oriented method seeks to assess the economic efficiency of cassava farmers in Nimba County, Liberia. A multi-stage sampling technique was employed to generate a sample for the study. From 216 cassava farmers, data related to on-farm attributes, socio-economic and institutional factors were collected. The stochastic frontier models, using the Translog functional forms, of production and revenue, were used to determine the level of revenue efficiency and its determinants. The result showed that most of the cassava farmers are male (60%). Many of the farmers are either married, engaged or living together with a spouse (83%), with a mean household size of nine persons. Farmland is prevalently obtained by inheritance (95%), average farm size is 1.34 hectares, and most cassava farmers did not access agriculture credits (76%) and extension services (91%). The mean cassava output per hectare is 1,506.02 kg, which estimates average revenue of L$23,551.16 (Liberian dollars). Empirical results showed that the revenue efficiency of cassava farmers varies from 0.1% to 73.5%; with the mean revenue efficiency of 12.9%. This indicates that on average, there is a vast potential of 87.1% to increase the economic efficiency of cassava farmers in Nimba by improving technical and allocative efficiencies. For the significant determinants of revenue efficiency, age and group membership had negative effects on revenue efficiency of cassava production; while farming experience, access to extension, formal education, and average wage rate have positive effects. The study recommends the setting-up and incentivizing of farmer field schools for cassava farmers to primarily share their farming experiences with others and to learn robust cultivation techniques of sustainable agriculture. Also, farm managers and farmers should consider a fix wage rate in labor contracts for all stages of cassava farming.
Abstract: The demand for renewable energy is significantly increasing, major investments are being supplied to the wind power generation industry as a leading source of clean energy. The wind energy sector is entirely dependable and driven by the prediction of wind speed, which by the nature of wind is very stochastic and widely random. This s0tudy employs deep multi-fidelity Gaussian process regression, used to predict wind speeds for medium term time horizons. Data of the RUNE experiment in the west coast of Denmark were provided by the Technical University of Denmark, which represent the wind speed across the study area from the period between December 2015 and March 2016. The study aims to investigate the effect of pre-processing the data by denoising the signal using empirical wavelet transform (EWT) and engaging the vector components of wind speed to increase the number of input data layers for data fusion using deep multi-fidelity Gaussian process regression (GPR). The outcomes were compared using root mean square error (RMSE) and the results demonstrated a significant increase in the accuracy of predictions which demonstrated that using vector components of the wind speed as additional predictors exhibits more accurate predictions than strategies that ignore them, reflecting the importance of the inclusion of all sub data and pre-processing signals for wind speed forecasting models.
Abstract: The use of mathematical models for solving biological problems varies from simple to complex analyses, depending on the nature of the research problems and applicability of the models. The method is more common nowadays. Many complex models become impractical when transmitted analytically. However, alternative approach such as numerical method can be employed. It appropriateness in solving linear and non-linear model equation in Differential Transformation Method (DTM) which depends on Taylor series make it applicable. Hence this study investigates the application of DTM to solve dynamic transmission of Lassa fever model in a population. The mathematical model was formulated using first order differential equation. Firstly, existence and uniqueness of the solution was determined to establish that the model is mathematically well posed for the application of DTM. Numerically, simulations were conducted to compare the results obtained by DTM and that of fourth-order Runge-Kutta method. As shown, DTM is very effective in predicting the solution of epidemics of Lassa fever model.
Abstract: The emergence of digital twin technology, a digital replica of physical world, has improved the real-time access to data from sensors about the performance of buildings. This digital transformation has opened up many opportunities to improve the management of the building by using the data collected to help monitor consumption patterns and energy leakages. One example is the integration of predictive models for anomaly detection. In this paper, we use the GAM (Generalised Additive Model) for the anomaly detection of Air Handling Units (AHU) power consumption pattern. There is ample research work on the use of GAM for the prediction of power consumption at the office building and nation-wide level. However, there is limited illustration of its anomaly detection capabilities, prescriptive analytics case study, and its integration with the latest development of digital twin technology. In this paper, we applied the general GAM modelling framework on the historical data of the AHU power consumption and cooling load of the building between Jan 2018 to Aug 2019 from an education campus in Singapore to train prediction models that, in turn, yield predicted values and ranges. The historical data are seamlessly extracted from the digital twin for modelling purposes. We enhanced the utility of the GAM model by using it to power a real-time anomaly detection system based on the forward predicted ranges. The magnitude of deviation from the upper and lower bounds of the uncertainty intervals is used to inform and identify anomalous data points, all based on historical data, without explicit intervention from domain experts. Notwithstanding, the domain expert fits in through an optional feedback loop through which iterative data cleansing is performed. After an anomalously high or low level of power consumption detected, a set of rule-based conditions are evaluated in real-time to help determine the next course of action for the facilities manager. The performance of GAM is then compared with other approaches to evaluate its effectiveness. Lastly, we discuss the successfully deployment of this approach for the detection of anomalous power consumption pattern and illustrated with real-world use cases.
Abstract: A 3D woven composite, designed for automotive applications, is studied using Abaqus Finite Element (FE) software suite. Python scripts were developed to build FE models of the woven composite in Complete Abaqus Environment (CAE). They can read TexGen or WiseTex files and automatically generate consistent meshes of the fabric and the matrix. A user menu is provided to help define parameters for the FE models, such as type and size of the elements in fabric and matrix as well as the type of matrix-fabric interaction. Node-to-node constraints were imposed to guarantee periodicity of the deformed shapes at the boundaries of the representative volume element of the composite. Tensile loads in three axes and biaxial loads in x-y directions have been applied at different Fibre Volume Fractions (FVFs). A simple damage model was implemented via an Abaqus user material (UMAT) subroutine. Existing tools for homogenization were also used, including voxel mesh generation from TexGen as well as Abaqus Micromechanics plugin. Linear relations between homogenised elastic properties and the FVFs are given. The FE models of composite exhibited balanced behaviour with respect to warp and weft directions in terms of both stiffness and strength.
Abstract: Recently, the rapid development of deep learning makes
artificial intelligence (AI) penetrate into many fields, replacing
manual work there. In particular, AI systems also become a research
focus in the field of automatic office. To meet real needs in automatic
officiating, in this paper we develop an automatic form filling system.
Specifically, it uses two classical neural network models and several
word embedding models to classify various relevant information
elicited from the Internet. When training the neural network models,
we use less noisy and balanced data for training. We conduct a series
of experiments to test my systems and the results show that our
system can achieve better classification results.
Abstract: A warrant is a financial contract that confers the right but not the obligation, to buy or sell a security at a certain price before expiration. The standard procedure to value equity warrants using call option pricing models such as the Black–Scholes model had been proven to contain many flaws, such as the assumption of constant interest rate and constant volatility. In fact, existing alternative models were found focusing more on demonstrating techniques for pricing, rather than empirical testing. Therefore, a mathematical model for pricing and analyzing equity warrants which comprises stochastic interest rate and stochastic volatility is essential to incorporate the dynamic relationships between the identified variables and illustrate the real market. Here, the aim is to develop dynamic pricing formulations for hybrid equity warrants by incorporating stochastic interest rates from the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) model, along with stochastic volatility from the Heston model. The development of the model involves the derivations of stochastic differential equations that govern the model dynamics. The resulting equations which involve Cauchy problem and heat equations are then solved using partial differential equation approaches. The analytical pricing formulas obtained in this study comply with the form of analytical expressions embedded in the Black-Scholes model and other existing pricing models for equity warrants. This facilitates the practicality of this proposed formula for comparison purposes and further empirical study.
Abstract: The impact the climate change is not recent, the main variable in the hydrological cycle is the sequence and shortage of a drought, which has a significant impact on the socioeconomic, agricultural and environmental spheres. This study aims to characterize and quantify, based on precipitation climatic projections, the rainy and dry events in the region of the Uruguay River Basin, through the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The database is the image that is part of the Intercomparison of Model Models, Phase 5 (CMIP5), which provides condition prediction models, organized according to the Representative Routes of Concentration (CPR). Compared to the normal set of climates in the Uruguay River Watershed through precipitation projections, seasonal precipitation increases for all proposed scenarios, with a low climate trend. From the data of this research, the idea is that this article can be used to support research and the responsible bodies can use it as a subsidy for mitigation measures in other hydrographic basins.
Abstract: Over the past few years, the idea of adaptive buildings and specifically, adaptive building energy management systems (ABEMS) has become popular. Well-performed management in terms of energy is to create a balance between energy consumption and user comfort; therefore, in new energy management models, efficient energy consumption is not the sole factor and the user's comfortability is also considered in the calculations. One of the main ways of measuring this factor is by analyzing user feedback on the conditions to understand whether they are satisfied with conditions or not. This paper provides a comprehensive review of recent approaches towards energy management systems based on users' feedbacks and subsequently performs a comparison between them premised upon their efficiency and accuracy to understand which approaches were more accurate and which ones resulted in a more efficient way of minimizing energy consumption while maintaining users' comfortability. It was concluded that the highest accuracy rate among the presented works was 95% accuracy in determining satisfaction and up to 51.08% energy savings can be achieved without disturbing user’s comfort. Considering the growing interest in designing and developing adaptive buildings, these studies can support diverse inquiries about this subject and can be used as a resource to support studies and researches towards efficient energy consumption while maintaining the comfortability of users.
Abstract: The purpose of this article is to optimize the Equivalent Electric Circuit Model (EECM) of different orders to obtain greater precision in the modeling of Li-ion battery packs. Optimization includes considering circuits based on 1RC, 2RC and 3RC networks, with a dependent voltage source and a series resistor. The parameters are obtained experimentally using tests in the time domain and in the frequency domain. Due to the high non-linearity of the behavior of the battery pack, Genetic Algorithm (GA) was used to solve and optimize the parameters of each EECM considered (1RC, 2RC and 3RC). The objective of the estimation is to minimize the mean square error between the measured impedance in the real battery pack and those generated by the simulation of different proposed circuit models. The results have been verified by comparing the Nyquist graphs of the estimation of the complex impedance of the pack. As a result of the optimization, the 2RC and 3RC circuit alternatives are considered as viable to represent the battery behavior. These battery pack models are experimentally validated using a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) simulation platform that reproduces the well-known New York City cycle (NYCC) and Federal Test Procedure (FTP) driving cycles for electric vehicles. The results show that using GA optimization allows obtaining EECs with 2RC or 3RC networks, with high precision to represent the dynamic behavior of a battery pack in vehicular applications.
Abstract: The goal of option pricing theory is to help the investors
to manage their money, enhance returns and control their financial
future by theoretically valuing their options. However, most of the
option pricing models have no analytical solution. Furthermore,
not all the numerical methods are efficient to solve these models
because they have nonsmoothing payoffs or discontinuous derivatives
at the exercise price. In this paper, we solve the American option
under jump diffusion models by using efficient time-dependent
numerical methods. several techniques are integrated to reduced
the overcome the computational complexity. Fast Fourier Transform
(FFT) algorithm is used as a matrix-vector multiplication solver,
which reduces the complexity from O(M2) into O(M logM).
Partial fraction decomposition technique is applied to rational
approximation schemes to overcome the complexity of inverting
polynomial of matrices. The proposed method is easy to implement
on serial or parallel versions. Numerical results are presented to prove
the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method.
Abstract: The goal of option pricing theory is to help the
investors to manage their money, enhance returns and control their
financial future by theoretically valuing their options. Modeling
option pricing by Black-School models with jumps guarantees to
consider the market movement. However, only numerical methods
can solve this model. Furthermore, not all the numerical methods
are efficient to solve these models because they have nonsmoothing
payoffs or discontinuous derivatives at the exercise price. In this
paper, the exponential time differencing (ETD) method is applied
for solving partial integrodifferential equations arising in pricing
European options under Merton’s and Kou’s jump-diffusion models.
Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) algorithm is used as a matrix-vector
multiplication solver, which reduces the complexity from O(M2)
into O(M logM). A partial fraction form of Pad`e schemes is used
to overcome the complexity of inverting polynomial of matrices.
These two tools guarantee to get efficient and accurate numerical
solutions. We construct a parallel and easy to implement a version
of the numerical scheme. Numerical experiments are given to show
how fast and accurate is our scheme.
Abstract: Based on the main entrance and garden area (ME&G) project of Shanghai Disneyland, this paper introduces the application of BIM technology in this kind of low-rise comprehensive building with complex facade system, electromechanical system and decoration system. BIM technology is applied to the whole process of design, construction and completion of the whole project. With the construction of BIM application framework of the whole project, the key points of BIM modeling methods of different systems and the integration and coordination of BIM models are elaborated in detail. The specific application methods of BIM technology in similar complex low-rise building projects are sorted out. Finally, the paper summarizes the benefits of BIM technology application, and puts forward some suggestions for BIM management mode and practical application of similar projects in the future.
Abstract: Steel Metal Shear Wall is one of the most common and widely used energy dissipation systems in structures, which is used today as a damping system due to the increase in the construction of metal structures. In the present study, the shear wall of the steel plate with dimensions of 5×3 m and thickness of 0.024 m was modeled with 2 floors of total height from the base level with finite element method in Abaqus software. The loading is done as a concentrated load at the upper point of the shear wall on the second floor based on step type buckle. The mesh in the model is applied in two directions of length and width of the shear wall, equal to 0.02 and 0.033, respectively, and the mesh in the models is of sweep type. Finally, it was found that the steel plate shear wall with cavity (CSPSW) compared to the SPSW model, S (Mises), Smax (In-Plane Principal), Smax (In-Plane Principal-ABS), Smax (Min Principal) increased by 53%, 70%, 68% and 43%, respectively. The presence of cavities has led to an increase in the estimated stresses, but their presence has caused critical stresses and critical deformations created to be removed from the inner surface of the shear wall and transferred to the desired sections (regular cavities) which can be suggested as a solution in seismic design and improvement of the structure to transfer possible damage during the earthquake and storm to the desired and pre-designed location in the structure.
Abstract: The use of advanced methods has been increasing day by day in the maritime sector, which is one of the sectors least affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. It is aimed to minimize accidents, especially by using advanced methods in the investigation of marine accidents. This research aimed to conduct an exploratory statistical analysis of particular ship accidents in the Transport Safety Investigation Center of Turkey database. 46 ship accidents, which occurred between 2010-2018, have been selected from the database. In addition to the availability of a reliable and comprehensive database, taking advantage of the robust statistical models for investigation is critical to improving the safety of ships. Thus, descriptive analysis has been used in the research to identify causes and conditional factors related to different types of ship accidents. The research outcomes underline the fact that environmental factors and day and night ratio have great influence on ship safety.
Abstract: Understanding the concept of function has been important in mathematics education for many years. In this study, the models built by a group of five business administration and accounting undergraduate students when carrying out a population growth activity are analyzed. The theoretical framework is the Models and Modeling Perspective. The results show how the students included tables, graphics, and algebraic representations in their models. Using technology was useful to interpret, describe, and predict the situation. The first model, the students built to describe the situation, was linear. After that, they modified and refined their ways of thinking; finally, they created exponential growth. Modeling the activity was useful to deep on mathematical concepts such as covariation, rate of change, and exponential function also to differentiate between linear and exponential growth.
Abstract: In an era where machines run and shape our world, the need for a stable, non-ending source of energy emerges. In this study, the focus was on the solar energy in Egypt as a renewable source, the most important factors that could affect the solar energy’s market share throughout its life cycle production were analyzed and filtered, the relationships between them were derived before structuring a Bayesian network. Also, forecasted models were built for multiple factors to predict the states in Egypt by 2035, based on historical data and patterns, to be used as the nodes’ states in the network. 37 factors were found to might have an impact on the use of solar energy and then were deducted to 12 factors that were chosen to be the most effective to the solar energy’s life cycle in Egypt, based on surveying experts and data analysis, some of the factors were found to be recurring in multiple stages. The presented Bayesian network could be used later for scenario and decision analysis of using solar energy in Egypt, as a stable renewable source for generating any type of energy needed.
Abstract: Evaluating the levels of cyber-security risks within an enterprise is most important in protecting its information system, services and all its digital assets against security incidents (e.g. accidents, malicious acts, massive cyber-attacks). The existing risk assessment methodologies (e.g. eBIOS, OCTAVE, CRAMM, NIST-800) adopt a technical approach considering as attack factors only the capability, intention and target of the attacker, and not paying attention to the attacker’s psychological profile and personality traits. In this paper, a socio-technical approach is proposed in cyber risk assessment, in order to achieve more realistic risk estimates by considering the personality traits of the attackers. In particular, based upon principles from investigative psychology and behavioural science, a multi-dimensional, extended, quantifiable model for an attacker’s profile is developed, which becomes an additional factor in the cyber risk level calculation.
Abstract: This paper presents the observations from a series of shaking-table tests done on a 1:1 scaled confined masonry wall model, with opening for a door – specimens CMDuS (confined masonry wall with opening for a door before strengthening) and CMDS (confined masonry wall with opening for a door after strengthening). Frequency and stiffness changes before and after GFRP (Glass Fiber Reinforced Plastic) wall strengthening are analyzed. Definition of dynamic properties of the models was the first step of the experimental testing, which enabled acquiring important information about the achieved stiffness (natural frequencies) of the model. The natural frequency was defined in the Y direction of the model by applying resonant frequency search tests. It is important to mention that both specimens CMDuS and CMDS are subjected to the same effects. The tests are realized in the laboratory of the Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Seismology (IZIIS), Skopje. The specimens were examined separately on the shaking table, with uniaxial, in-plane excitation. After testing, samples were strengthened with GFRP and re-tested. The initial frequency of the undamaged model CMDuS is 13.55 Hz, while at the end of the testing, the frequency decreased to 6.38 Hz. This emphasizes the reduction of the initial stiffness of the model due to damage, especially in the masonry and tie-beam to tie-column connection. After strengthening of the damaged wall, the natural frequency increases to 10.89 Hz. This highlights the beneficial effect of the strengthening. After completion of dynamic testing at CMDS, the natural frequency is reduced to 6.66 Hz.
Abstract: In the present study, a methodology has been proposed to treat fracture in the distal part of the femur bone. Initially, bone model has been developed using the computed tomography scan data of the fractured bone. This information has been further used to create polyether ether ketone (PEEK) implant for this fractured bone. Damaged bone and implant models have been assembled. This assembled model has been further analyzed for stress distribution. Moreover, deformation developed was also measured. It has been observed that the stress and deformation developed was not so appreciable. Thus, it proves that the aforementioned procedure can be suitably adopted for the treatment of fractured distal femur bone.