Abstract: Infrastructure investments are important in developing
countries, it will not only help to foster the economic growth of a
nation, but it will also act as a platform in which new forms of
partnership and collaboration can be developed mainly in East Asian
countries. Since the last two decades, many infrastructure projects
had been completed through build-operate-transfer (BOT) type of
procurement. The developments of BOT have attracted participation
of local and foreign private sector investor to secure funding and to
deliver projects on time, within the budget and to the required
specifications. Private sectors are preferred by the government in
East Asia to participate in BOT projects due to lack of public
funding. The finding has resulted that the private sector or promoter
of the BOT projects is exposed to multiple risks which have been
discussed in this paper. Effective risk management methods and
good managerial skills are required in ensuring the success of the
project. The review indicated that mitigation measures should be
employed by the promoter throughout the concession period and
support from the host government is also required in ensuring the
success of the BOT project.
Abstract: Many firms implemented various initiatives such as outsourced manufacturing which could make a supply chain (SC) more vulnerable to various types of disruptions. So managing risk has become a critical component of SC management. Different types of SC vulnerability management methodologies have been proposed for managing SC risk, most offer only point-based solutions that deal with a limited set of risks. This research aims to reinforce SC risk management by proposing an integrated approach. SC risks are identified and a risk index classification structure is created. Then we develop a SC risk assessment approach based on the analytic network process (ANP) and the VIKOR methods under the fuzzy environment where the vagueness and subjectivity are handled with linguistic terms parameterized by triangular fuzzy numbers. By using FANP, risks weights are calculated and then inserted to the FVIKOR to rank the SC members and find the most risky partner.
Abstract: Supply chain networks are frequently hit by
unplanned events which lead to disruptions and cause operational and
financial consequences. It is neither possible to avoid disruption risk
entirely, nor are network members able to prepare for every possible
disruptive event. Therefore a continuity planning should be set up
which supports effective operational responses in supply chain
networks in times of emergencies. In this research network related
degrees of freedom which determine the options for responsive
actions are derived from interview data. The findings are further
embedded into a common risk management process. The paper
provides support for researchers and practitioners to identify the
network related options for responsive actions and to determine the
need for improving the reaction capabilities.
Abstract: Risk response planning is of importance for software project risk management (SPRM). In CMMI, risk management was in the third capability maturity level, which provides a framework for software project risk identification, assessment, risk planning, risk control. However, the CMMI-based SPRM currently lacks quantitative supporting tools, especially during the process of implementing software project risk planning. In this paper, an economic optimization model for selecting risk reduction actions in the phase of software project risk response planning is presented. Furthermore, an example taken from a Chinese software industry is illustrated to verify the application of this method. The research provides a risk decision method for project risk managers that can be used in the implementation of CMMI-based SPRM.
Abstract: R&D risk management has been suggested as one of
the management approaches for accomplishing the goals of public
R&D investment. The investment in basic science and core technology
development is the essential roles of government for securing the
social base needed for continuous economic growth. And, it is also an
important role of the science and technology policy sectors to generate
a positive environment in which the outcomes of public R&D can be
diffused in a stable fashion by controlling the uncertainties and risk
factors in advance that may arise during the application of such
achievements to society and industry. Various policies have already
been implemented to manage uncertainties and variables that may
have negative impact on accomplishing public R& investment goals.
But we may derive new policy measures for complementing the
existing policies and for exploring progress direction by analyzing
them in a policy package from the viewpoint of R&D risk
management.
Abstract: Basel III (or the Third Basel Accord) is a global
regulatory standard on bank capital adequacy, stress testing and
market liquidity risk agreed upon by the members of the Basel
Committee on Banking Supervision in 2010-2011, and scheduled to
be introduced from 2013 until 2018. Basel III is a comprehensive set
of reform measures. These measures aim to; (1) improve the banking
sector-s ability to absorb shocks arising from financial and economic
stress, whatever the source, (2) improve risk management and
governance, (3) strengthen banks- transparency and disclosures.
Similarly the reform target; (1) bank level or micro-prudential,
regulation, which will help raise the resilience of individual banking
institutions to periods of stress. (2) Macro-prudential regulations,
system wide risk that can build up across the banking sector as well
as the pro-cyclical implication of these risks over time. These two
approaches to supervision are complementary as greater resilience at
the individual bank level reduces the risk system wide shocks.
Macroeconomic impact of Basel III; OECD estimates that the
medium-term impact of Basel III implementation on GDP growth is
in the range -0,05 percent to -0,15 percent per year. On the other hand
economic output is mainly affected by an increase in bank lending
spreads as banks pass a rise in banking funding costs, due to higher
capital requirements, to their customers. Consequently the estimated
effects on GDP growth assume no active response from monetary
policy. Basel III impact on economic output could be offset by a
reduction (or delayed increase) in monetary policy rates by about 30
to 80 basis points. The aim of this paper is to create a framework
based on the recent regulations in order to prevent financial crises.
Thus the need to overcome the global financial crisis will contribute
to financial crises that may occur in the future periods. In the first
part of the paper, the effects of the global crisis on the banking
system examine the concept of financial regulations. In the second
part; especially in the financial regulations and Basel III are analyzed.
The last section in this paper explored the possible consequences of
the macroeconomic impacts of Basel III.
Abstract: This paper aims to provide a conceptual framework to examine competitive disadvantage of banks that suffer from poor performance. Banks generate revenues mainly from the interest rate spread on taking deposits and making loans while collecting fees in the process. To maximize firm value, banks seek loan growth and expense control while managing risk associated with loans with respect to non-performing borrowers or narrowing interest spread between assets and liabilities. Competitive disadvantage refers to the failure to access imitable resources and to build managing capabilities to gain sustainable return given appropriate risk management. This paper proposes a four-quadrant framework of organizational typology is subsequently proposed to examine the features of competitive disadvantage in the banking sector. A resource configuration model, which is extracted from CAMEL indicators to examine the underlying features of bank failures.
Abstract: The world-s largest Pre-stressed Concrete Cylinder
Pipe (PCCP) water supply project had a series of pipe failures which
occurred between 1999 and 2001. This has led the Man-Made River
Authority (MMRA), the authority in charge of the implementation
and operation of the project, to setup a rehabilitation plan for the
conveyance system while maintaining the uninterrupted flow of
water to consumers. At the same time, MMRA recognized the need
for a long term management tool that would facilitate repair and
maintenance decisions and enable taking the appropriate preventive
measures through continuous monitoring and estimation of the
remaining life of each pipe. This management tool is known as the
Pipe Risk Management System (PRMS) and now in operation at
MMRA. Both the rehabilitation plan and the PRMS require the
availability of complete and accurate pipe construction and
manufacturing data
This paper describes a systematic approach of data collection,
analysis, evaluation and correction for the construction and
manufacturing data files of phase I pipes which are the platform for
the PRMS database and any other related decision support system.
Abstract: Mobile banking services present a unique growth
opportunity for mobile operators in emerging markets, and have
already made good progress in bringing financial services to the
previously unbanked populations of many developing countries. The
potential is amazing, but what about the risks? In the complex
process of establishing a mobile banking business model, many kinds
of risks and factors need to be monitored and well-managed. Risk
identification is the first stage of risk management. Correct risk
identification ensures risk management effectiveness. Keeping the
risks low makes it possible to use the full potential of mobile banking
and carry out the planned business strategy. The focus should be on
adoption of consumers which is the main risk factor of mobile
banking services.
Abstract: Construction of tunnels is connected with high
uncertainty in the field of costs, construction period, safety and
impact on surroundings. Risk management became therefore a
common part of tunnel projects, especially after a set of fatal
collapses occurred in 1990's. Such collapses are caused usually by
combination of factors that can be divided into three main groups, i.e.
unfavourable geological conditions, failures in the design and
planning or failures in the execution.
This paper suggests a procedure enabling quantification of the
excavation risk related to extraordinary accidents using FTA and
ETA tools. It will elaborate on a common process of risk analysis and
enable the transfer of information and experience between particular
tunnel construction projects. Further, it gives a guide for designers,
management and other participants, how to deal with risk of such
accidents and how to make qualified decisions based on a
probabilistic approach.
Abstract: While the form of crises may change, their essence
remains the same (such as a cycle of abundant liquidity, rapid credit
growth, and a low-inflation environment followed by an asset-price
bubble). The current market turbulence began in mid-2000s when the
US economy shifted to imbalanced both internal and external
macroeconomic positions. We see two key causes of these problems
– loose US monetary policy in early 2000s and US government
guarantees issued on the securities by government-sponsored
enterprises what was further fueled by financial innovations such as
structured credit products. We have discovered both negative and
positive lessons deriving from this crisis and divided the negative
lessons into three groups: financial products and valuation, processes
and business models, and strategic issues. Moreover, we address key
risk management lessons and exit strategies derived from the current
crisis and recommend policies that should help diminish the negative
impact of future potential crises.
Abstract: The right information at the right time influences the
enterprise and technical success. Sharing knowledge among members
of a big organization may be a complex activity. And as long as the
knowledge is not shared, can not be exploited by the organization.
There are some mechanisms which can originate knowledge sharing.
It is intended, in this paper, to trigger these mechanisms by using
semantic nets. Moreover, the intersection and overlapping of terms
and sub-terms, as well as their relationships will be described through
the mereology science for the whole knowledge sharing system. It is
proposed a knowledge system to supply to operators with the right
information about a specific process and possible risks, e.g. at the
assembly process, at the right time in an automated manufacturing
environment, such as at the automotive industry.
Abstract: Automatic reading of handwritten cheque is a computationally
complex process and it plays an important role in financial
risk management. Machine vision and learning provide a viable
solution to this problem. Research effort has mostly been focused
on recognizing diverse pitches of cheques and demand drafts with an
identical outline. However most of these methods employ templatematching
to localize the pitches and such schemes could potentially
fail when applied to different types of outline maintained by the
bank. In this paper, the so-called outline problem is resolved by
a cheque information tree (CIT), which generalizes the localizing
method to extract active-region-of-entities. In addition, the weight
based density plot (WBDP) is performed to isolate text entities and
read complete pitches. Recognition is based on texture features using
neural classifiers. Legal amount is subsequently recognized by both
texture and perceptual features. A post-processing phase is invoked
to detect the incorrect readings by Type-2 grammar using the Turing
machine. The performance of the proposed system was evaluated
using cheque and demand drafts of 22 different banks. The test data
consists of a collection of 1540 leafs obtained from 10 different
account holders from each bank. Results show that this approach
can easily be deployed without significant design amendments.
Abstract: Liquidity risk management ranks to key concepts
applied in finance. Liquidity is defined as a capacity to obtain
funding when needed, while liquidity risk means as a threat to this
capacity to generate cash at fair costs. In the paper we present
challenges of liquidity risk management resulting from the 2007-
2009 global financial upheaval. We see five main regulatory
liquidity risk management issues requiring revision in coming
years: liquidity measurement, intra-day and intra-group liquidity
management, contingency planning and liquidity buffers, liquidity
systems, controls and governance, and finally models testing the
viability of business liquidity models.
Abstract: Operational risk has become one of the most discussed topics in the financial industry in the recent years. The reasons for this attention can be attributed to higher investments in information systems and technology, the increasing wave of mergers and acquisitions and emergence of new financial instruments. In addition, the New Basel Capital Accord (known as Basel II) demands a capital requirement for operational risk and further motivates financial institutions to more precisely measure and manage this type of risk. The aim of this paper is to shed light on main characteristics of operational risk management and common applied methods: scenario analysis, key risk indicators, risk control self assessment and loss distribution approach.
Abstract: One of the important steps in a safety and risk management system is the economical evaluation of occupational accident and diseases costs in order to decrease accidents from reoccurring in the workplace. This study proposed a plausible method for calculating occupational accident costs and illnesses in work place. This method design for cost estimation takes into account both the personnel, organizational level as well as the community level especially intended for an Iranian work place. The research indicates that a using systematic method for calculating costs which also provides risk evaluation can help managers to plan correctly the investment in health and safety measures. Using this method is that not only is it comprehensive, easy and practical and could be applied in practice by a manager within a short period of time but it also shows the importance of accident costs as well as calculates the real cost of an accident and illnesses.
Abstract: A dynamic risk management framework for software
projects is presented. Currently available software risk management
frameworks and risk assessment models are static in nature and lacks
feedback capability. Such risk management frameworks are not
capable of providing the risk assessment of futuristic changes in risk
events. A dynamic risk management framework for software project
is needed that provides futuristic assessment of risk events.
Abstract: Automatic methods of detecting changes through
satellite imaging are the object of growing interest, especially
beca²use of numerous applications linked to analysis of the Earth’s
surface or the environment (monitoring vegetation, updating maps,
risk management, etc...). This work implemented spatial analysis
techniques by using images with different spatial and spectral
resolutions on different dates. The work was based on the principle
of control charts in order to set the upper and lower limits beyond
which a change would be noted. Later, the a contrario approach was
used. This was done by testing different thresholds for which the
difference calculated between two pixels was significant. Finally,
labeled images were considered, giving a particularly low difference
which meant that the number of “false changes” could be estimated
according to a given limit.