Abstract: In recent years, the number of natural disasters in Laos has a trend to increase, especially the disaster of flood. To make a flood plan risk management in the future, it is necessary to understand and analyze the characteristics of the rainfall and Mekong River level data. To reduce the damage, this paper presents the flood risk analysis in Luangprabang and Vientiane, the prefecture of Laos. In detail, the relationship between the rainfall and the Mekong River level has evaluated and appropriate countermeasure for flood was discussed.
Abstract: In this paper, a data mining model to SMEs for detecting financial and operational risk indicators by data mining is presenting. The identification of the risk factors by clarifying the relationship between the variables defines the discovery of knowledge from the financial and operational variables. Automatic and estimation oriented information discovery process coincides the definition of data mining. During the formation of model; an easy to understand, easy to interpret and easy to apply utilitarian model that is far from the requirement of theoretical background is targeted by the discovery of the implicit relationships between the data and the identification of effect level of every factor. In addition, this paper is based on a project which was funded by The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK).
Abstract: Purpose:This paper aims to gain insights to the influential factors of ERM adoptions by public listed firms in Malaysia. Findings:The two factors of financial leverage and auditor type were found to be significant influential factors for ERM adoption. In other words the findings indicated that firms with higher financial leverage and with a Big Four auditor are more likely to have a form of ERM framework in place. Originality/Value:Since there are relatively few studies conducted in this area and specially in developing economies like Malaysia, this study will broaden the scope of literature by providing novel empirical evidence.
Abstract: Since the beginning of human history, human
activities have caused many changes in the environment. Today, a
particular attention should be paid to gaining knowledge about water
quality of wetlands which are pristine natural environments rich in
genetic reserves. If qualitative conditions of industrial areas (in terms
of both physicochemical and biological conditions) are not addressed
properly, they could cause disruption in natural ecosystems,
especially in rivers. With regards to the quality of water resources,
determination of pollutant sources plays a pivotal role in engineering
projects as well as designing water quality control systems. Thus,
using different methods such as flow duration curves, dischargepollution
load model and frequency analysis by HYFA software
package, risk of various industrial pollutants in international and
ecologically important Gavkhoni wetland is analyzed. In this study, a
station located at Varzaneh City is used as the last station on
Zayanderud River, from where the river water is discharged into the
wetland. Results showed that elements- concentrations often
exceeded the allowed level and river water can endanger regional
ecosystem. In addition, if the river discharge is managed on Q25
basis, this basis can lower concentrations of elements, keeping them
within the normal level.
Abstract: Normally business changes are made in order to
change a level of activity in some way, whether it is sales, cash flow,
productivity, or product portfolio. When attempts are made to make
such changes, too often the business reverts to the old levels of
activity as soon as management attention is diverted. Risk
management is a field of growing interest to project managers as well
as in general business and organizational management. There are
several approaches used to manage risk in projects and this paper is a
brief outline of some that you might encounter, with an indication of
their strengths and weaknesses.
Abstract: Global environmental changes lead to increased frequency and scale of natural disaster, Taiwan is under the influence of global warming and extreme weather. Therefore, the vulnerability was increased and variability and complexity of disasters is relatively enhanced. The purpose of this study is to consider the source and magnitude of hazard characteristics on the tourism industry. Using modern risk management concepts, integration of related domestic and international basic research, this goes beyond the Taiwan typhoon disaster risk assessment model and evaluation of loss. This loss evaluation index system considers the impact of extreme weather, in particular heavy rain on the tourism industry in Taiwan. Consider the extreme climate of the compound impact of disaster for the tourism industry; we try to make multi-hazard risk assessment model, strategies and suggestions. Related risk analysis results are expected to provide government department, the tourism industry asset owners, insurance companies and banking include tourist disaster risk necessary information to help its tourism industry for effective natural disaster risk management.
Abstract: Bottle water is getting very popular all through the
world; especially in the gulf countries as the main source of drinking
water. However, concerns over leaching of toxic chemicals are
increasing. In this study, a health risk assessment was conducted in
accordance with the guidelines indicated by United States
Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). It is conducted based on
leaching of Diethyl Phthalate (DEP) from Polyethylene terephthalate
(PET). The toxicity and exposure assessment of diethyl phthalate was
conducted to characterize its risk on human health. Risk management
is also discussed.
Abstract: A business case is a proposal for an investment
initiative to satisfy business and functional requirements. The
business case provides the foundation for tactical decision making
and technology risk management. It helps to clarify how the
organization will use its resources in the best way by providing
justification for investment of resources. This paper describes how
simulation was used for business case benefits and return on
investment for the procurement of 8 production machines. With
investment costs of about 4.7 million dollars and annual operating
costs of about 1.3 million, we needed to determine if the machines
would provide enough cost savings and cost avoidance. We
constructed a model of the existing factory environment consisting of
8 machines and subsequently, we conducted average day simulations
with light and heavy volumes to facilitate planning decisions
required to be documented and substantiated in the business case.
Abstract: The risk sphere in business is fast changing and expanding. Almost anything has become a risk factor that will have potent, direct, and far reaching impacts on business. This paper examines the intensity of enterprise risk management (ERM) practices among the Malaysian public listed companies. The paper espouses a ERM framework comprising fourteen important implementation elements and processes. Results of the analysis indicate that the intensity of ERM implementation among the respondents is in the ‘good’ category of the semantic scale, which is deemed encouraging vis-à-vis the country’s regulatory regime.
Abstract: There are three main ways of categorizing capital in banking operations: accounting, regulatory and economic capital. However, the 2008-2009 global crisis has shown that none of these categories adequately reflects the real risks of bank operations, especially in light of the failures Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers or Northern Rock. This paper deals with the economic capital allocation of global banks. In theory, economic capital should reflect the real risks of a bank and should be publicly available. Yet, as discovered during the global financial crisis, even when economic capital information was publicly disclosed, the underlying assumptions rendered the information useless. Specifically, some global banks that reported relatively high levels of economic capital before the crisis went bankrupt or had to be bailed-out by their government. And, only 15 out of 50 global banks reported their economic capital during the 2007-2010 period. In this paper, we analyze the changes in reported bank economic capital disclosure during this period. We conclude that relative shares of credit and business risks increased in 2010 compared to 2007, while both operational and market risks decreased their shares on the total economic capital of top-rated global banks. Generally speaking, higher levels of disclosure and transparency of bank operations are required to obtain more confidence from stakeholders. Moreover, additional risks such as liquidity risks should be included in these disclosures.
Abstract: Despite various methods that exist in software risk management, software projects have a high rate of failure. When complexity and size of the projects are increased, managing software development becomes more difficult. In these projects the need for more analysis and risk assessment is vital. In this paper, a classification for software risks is specified. Then relations between these risks using risk tree structure are presented. Analysis and assessment of these risks are done using probabilistic calculations. This analysis helps qualitative and quantitative assessment of risk of failure. Moreover it can help software risk management process. This classification and risk tree structure can apply to some software tools.
Abstract: The use of renewable energy sources incl. biogas has become topical in accordance with the increasing demand for energy, decrease of fossil energy resources and the efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as well as to increase energy independence from the territories where fossil energy resources are available.
As the technologies of biogas production from agricultural biomass develop, risk assessment and risk management become necessary for farms producing such a renewable energy. The need for risk assessments has become particularly topical when discussions on changing the biogas policy in the EU take place, which may influence the development of the sector in the future, as well as the operation of existing biogas facilities and their income level.
The current article describes results of the risk assessment for farms producing biomass from agriculture biomass in Latvia, the risk assessment system included 24 risks, that affect the whole biogas production process and the obtained results showed the high significance of political and production risks.
Abstract: This paper shows a traceability framework for supply risk monitoring, beginning with the identification, analysis, and evaluation of the supply chain risk and focusing on the supply operations of the Health Care Institutions with oncology services in Bogota, Colombia. It includes a brief presentation of the state of the art of the Supply Chain Risk Management and traceability systems in logistics operations, and it concludes with the methodology to integrate the SCRM model with the traceability system.
Abstract: In this paper we propose an NLP-based method for
Ontology Population from texts and apply it to semi automatic
instantiate a Generic Knowledge Base (Generic Domain Ontology) in
the risk management domain. The approach is semi-automatic and
uses a domain expert intervention for validation. The proposed
approach relies on a set of Instances Recognition Rules based on
syntactic structures, and on the predicative power of verbs in the
instantiation process. It is not domain dependent since it heavily
relies on linguistic knowledge.
A description of an experiment performed on a part of the
ontology of the PRIMA1 project (supported by the European
community) is given. A first validation of the method is done by
populating this ontology with Chemical Fact Sheets from
Environmental Protection Agency2. The results of this experiment
complete the paper and support the hypothesis that relying on the
predicative power of verbs in the instantiation process improves the
performance.
Abstract: Risk management is an essential fraction of project management, which plays a significant role in project success. Many failures associated with Web projects are the consequences of poor awareness of the risks involved and lack of process models that can serve as a guideline for the development of Web based applications. To circumvent this problem, contemporary process models have been devised for the development of conventional software. This paper introduces the WPRiMA (Web Project Risk Management Assessment) as the tool, which is used to implement RIAP, the risk identification architecture pattern model, which focuses upon the data from the proprietor-s and vendor-s perspectives. The paper also illustrates how WPRiMA tool works and how it can be used to calculate the risk level for a given Web project, to generate recommendations in order to facilitate risk avoidance in a project, and to improve the prospects of early risk management.
Abstract: The area of Project Risk Management (PRM) has
been extensively researched, and the utilization of various tools and
techniques for managing risk in several industries has been
sufficiently reported. Formal and systematic PRM practices have
been made available for the construction industry. Based on such
body of knowledge, this paper tries to find out the global picture of
PRM practices and approaches with the help of a survey to look into
the usage of PRM techniques and diffusion of software tools, their
level of maturity, and their usefulness in the construction sector.
Results show that, despite existing techniques and tools, their usage is
limited: software tools are used only by a minority of respondents
and their cost is one of the largest hurdles in adoption. Finally, the
paper provides some important guidelines for future research
regarding quantitative risk analysis techniques and suggestions for
PRM software tools development and improvement.
Abstract: While financial institutions have faced difficulties
over the years for a multitude of reasons, the major cause of serious
banking problems continues to be directly related to lax credit
standards for borrowers and counterparties, poor portfolio risk
management, or a lack of attention to changes in economic or other
circumstances that can lead to a deterioration in the credit standing of
a bank's counterparties. Credit risk is most simply defined as the
potential that a bank borrower or counterparty will fail to meet its
obligations in accordance with agreed terms. The goal of credit risk
management is to maximize a bank's risk-adjusted rate of return by
maintaining credit risk exposure within acceptable parameters. Banks
need to manage the credit risk inherent in the entire portfolio as well
as the risk in individual credits or transactions. Banks should also
consider the relationships between credit risk and other risks. The
effective management of credit risk is a critical component of a
comprehensive approach to risk management and essential to the
long-term success of any banking organization. In this research we
also study the relationship between credit risk indices and borrower-s
timely payback in Karafarin bank.
Abstract: This study employs a bivariate asymmetric GARCH
model to reveal the hidden dynamics price changes and volatility
among the emerging markets of Thailand and Malaysian after the
Asian financial crisis from January 2001 to December 2008. Our
results indicated that the equity markets are sharing the common
information (shock) that transmitted among each others. These
empirical findings are used to demonstrate the importance of shock
and volatility dynamic transmissions in the cross-market hedging and
market risk.
Abstract: A new deployment of the multiple criteria decision
making (MCDM) techniques: the Simple Additive Weighting
(SAW), and the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to
Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) for portfolio allocation, is demonstrated in
this paper. Rather than exclusive reference to mean and variance as in
the traditional mean-variance method, the criteria used in this
demonstration are the first four moments of the portfolio distribution.
Each asset is evaluated based on its marginal impacts to portfolio
higher moments that are characterized by trapezoidal fuzzy numbers.
Then centroid-based defuzzification is applied to convert fuzzy
numbers to the crisp numbers by which SAW and TOPSIS can be
deployed. Experimental results suggest the similar efficiency of these
MCDM approaches to selecting dominant assets for an optimal
portfolio under higher moments. The proposed approaches allow
investors flexibly adjust their risk preferences regarding higher
moments via different schemes adapting to various (from
conservative to risky) kinds of investors. The other significant
advantage is that, compared to the mean-variance analysis, the
portfolio weights obtained by SAW and TOPSIS are consistently
well-diversified.
Abstract: Every organization is continually subject to new damages and threats which can be resulted from their operations or their goal accomplishment. Methods of providing the security of space and applied tools have been widely changed with increasing application and development of information technology (IT). From this viewpoint, information security management systems were evolved to construct and prevent reiterating the experienced methods. In general, the correct response in information security management systems requires correct decision making, which in turn requires the comprehensive effort of managers and everyone involved in each plan or decision making. Obviously, all aspects of work or decision are not defined in all decision making conditions; therefore, the possible or certain risks should be considered when making decisions. This is the subject of risk management and it can influence the decisions. Investigation of different approaches in the field of risk management demonstrates their progress from quantitative to qualitative methods with a process approach.