Abstract: Electricity spot prices are highly volatile under
optimal generation capacity scenarios due to factors such as nonstorability
of electricity, peak demand at certain periods, generator
outages, fuel uncertainty for renewable energy generators, huge
investments and time needed for generation capacity expansion etc.
As a result market participants are exposed to price and volume risk,
which has led to the development of risk management practices. This
paper provides an overview of risk management practices by market
participants in electricity markets using financial derivatives.
Abstract: Most quality models have defined usability as a
significant factor that leads to improving product acceptability,
increasing user satisfaction, improving product reliability, and also
financially benefitting companies. Usability is also the best factor that
balances both the technical and human aspects of a software product,
which is an important aspect in defining quality during software
development process. A usability risk consist risk factors that could
impact the usability of a software product thereby contributing to
negative user experiences and causing a possible software product
failure. Hence, it is important to mitigate and reduce usability risks in
the software development process itself. By managing possible
usability risks in software development process, failure of software
product could be reduced. Therefore, this research uses the Delphi
method to identify mitigation plans for reducing potential usability
risks. The Delphi method is conducted with seven experts from the
field of risk management and software development.
Abstract: The construction of a new airport or the extension of
an existing one requires massive investments and many times public
private partnerships were considered in order to make feasible such
projects. One characteristic of these projects is uncertainty with
respect to financial and environmental impacts on the medium to long
term. Another one is the multistage nature of these types of projects.
While many airport development projects have been a success, some
others have turned into a nightmare for their promoters.
This communication puts forward a new approach for airport
investment risk assessment. The approach takes explicitly into
account the degree of uncertainty in activity levels prediction and
proposes milestones for the different stages of the project for
minimizing risk. Uncertainty is represented through fuzzy dual theory
and risk management is performed using dynamic programming. An
illustration of the proposed approach is provided.
Abstract: It is widely assumed that the case of Customs Supply Chain is classified as a complex system, due to not only the variety and large number of actors, but also their complex structural links, and the interactions between these actors, that’s why this system is subject to various types of Risks. The economic, political and social impacts of those risks are highly detrimental to countries, businesses and the public, for this reason, Risk management in the customs supply chain is becoming a crucial issue to ensure the sustainability, security and safety. The main characteristic of customs risk management approach is determining which goods and means of transport should be examined? To what extend? And where future compliance resources should be directed? The purposes of this article are, firstly to deal with the concept of customs supply chain, secondly present our risk management approach based on Cross Activity Based Costing (ABC) Method as an interactive tool to support decision making in customs risk management. Finally, analysis of case study of Moroccan customs to putting theory into practice and will thus draw together the various elements of a structured and efficient risk management approach.
Abstract: Recent changes in supply chains, especially globalization and collaboration, have created new risks for enterprises of all sizes. A variety of complex frameworks, often based on enterprise risk management strategies have been presented under the heading of Supply Chain Risk Management (SCRM). The literature on promotes the benefits of a robust SCRM strategy; however, implementing SCRM is difficult and resource demanding for Large Enterprises (LEs), and essentially out of reach for Small & Medium Enterprises (SMEs). This research debunks the idea that SCRM is necessary for all enterprises and instead proposes a simple and effective Vendor Selection Template (VST). Empirical testing and a survey of supply chain practitioners provide a measure of validation to the VST. The resulting VSTis a valuable contribution because is easy to use, provides practical results, and is sufficiently flexible to be universally applied to SMEs.
Abstract: Some of the key aspects of vulnerability—discovery, dissemination, and disclosure—have received some attention recently. However, the role of interaction among the vulnerability discoverers and vulnerability acquirers has not yet been adequately addressed. Our study suggests that a major percentage of discoverers, a majority in some cases, are unaffiliated with the software developers and thus are free to disseminate the vulnerabilities they discover in any way they like. As a result, multiple vulnerability markets have emerged. In some of these markets, the exchange is regulated, but in others, there is little or no regulation. In recent vulnerability discovery literature, the vulnerability discoverers have remained anonymous individuals. Although there has been an attempt to model the level of their efforts, information regarding their identities, modes of operation, and what they are doing with the discovered vulnerabilities has not been explored.
Reports of buying and selling of the vulnerabilities are now appearing in the press; however, the existence of such markets requires validation, and the natures of the markets need to be analyzed. To address this need, we have attempted to collect detailed information. We have identified the most prolific vulnerability discoverers throughout the past decade and examined their motivation and methods. A large percentage of these discoverers are located in Eastern and Western Europe and in the Far East. We have contacted several of them in order to collect firsthand information regarding their techniques, motivations, and involvement in the vulnerability markets. We examine why many of the discoverers appear to retire after a highly successful vulnerability-finding career. The paper identifies the actual vulnerability markets, rather than the hypothetical ideal markets that are often examined. The emergence of worldwide government agencies as vulnerability buyers has significant implications. We discuss potential factors that can impact the risk to society and the need for detailed exploration.
Abstract: The in-depth understanding of severe accident propagation in Generation IV of nuclear reactors is important so that appropriate risk management can be undertaken early in their design process. This paper is focused on model improvements in the SIMMER code in order to perform studies of severe accident mitigation of Sodium Fast Reactor. During the design process of the mitigation devices dedicated to extraction of molten fuel from the core region, the molten fuel propagation from the core up to the core catcher has to be studied. In this aim, analytical as well as the complex thermohydraulic simulations with SIMMER-III code are performed. The studies presented in this paper focus on physical phenomena and associated physical models that influence the corium relocation. Firstly, the molten pool heat exchange with surrounding structures is analyzed since it influences directly the instant of rupture of the dedicated tubes favoring the corium relocation for mitigation purpose. After the corium penetration into mitigation tubes, the fuel-coolant interactions result in formation of debris bed. Analyses of debris bed fluidization as well as sinking into a fluid are presented in this paper.
Abstract: In this article, a study of employee’s opinion to the factors that affect to the flood preventive and the corrective action plan in an electronic industry at the Sharp Manufacturing (Thailand) Co., Ltd. has been investigated. The surveys data of 175 workers and supervisors have, however, been selected for data analysis. The results is shown that the employees emphasize about the needs in a subsidy at the time of disaster at high levels of 77.8%, as the plan focusing on flood prevention of the rehabilitation equipment is valued at the intermediate level, which is 79.8%. Demonstration of the hypothesis has found that the different education levels has thus been affected to the needs factor at the flood disaster time. Moreover, most respondents give priority to flood disaster risk management factor. Consequently, we found that the flood prevention plan is valued at high level, especially on information monitoring, which is 93.4% for the supervisor item. The respondents largely assume that the flood will have impacts on the industry, up to 80%, thus to focus on flood management plans is enormous.
Abstract: This paper discusses aspects of outages in the electric transmission network in the Kosovo Power System caused by the atmospheric discharges.
Frequency and location of the atmospheric discharges in Kosovo territory will be provided by a lightning location system ALARM (Automated Lightning Alert and Risk Management) and from the data from the Meteorological Department in Prishtina International Airport. These data will be used to make comparisons with the actual outages registered in the Kosovo Power System from the Kosovo Transmission, systems and market operator (KOSTT) during a specific time period.
The lines with the worst performance determined, regarding the atmospheric discharges, will be choose for further discussions in terms of over voltages caused by the direct or indirect lightning strokes.
Recommendations for protection in terms of insulator coordination and surge arresters will be given at the end and in this stage dynamic simulation will take part.
Abstract: This paper discusses the role and importance of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) and social Networking (SN) in the process of decision making for Flood Risk and Knowledge Management Strategies. We use Mozambique Red Cross (CVM) as the case study and further more we address scenarios for flood risk management strategies, using earlier warning and social networking and we argue that a sustainable desirable stage of life can be achieved by developing scenario strategic planning based on backcasting.
Abstract: Remote sensing image processing, spatial data analysis through GIS approach, and analytical hierarchy process were introduced in this study for assessing the vulnerability area and inundation area due to tsunami hazard in the area of Rikuzentakata, Iwate Prefecture, Japan. Appropriate input parameters were derived from GSI DEM data, ALOS AVNIR-2, and field data. We used the parameters of elevation, slope, shoreline distance, and vegetation density. Five classes of vulnerability were defined and weighted via pairwise comparison matrix. The assessment results described that 14.35km2 of the study area was under tsunami vulnerability zone. Inundation areas are those of high and slightly high vulnerability. The farthest area reached by a tsunami was about 7.50km from the shoreline and shows that rivers act as flooding strips that transport tsunami waves into the hinterland. This study can be used for determining a priority for land-use planning in the scope of tsunami hazard risk management.
Abstract: The gap between the selection of risk-reduction options in the railway industry and the task of their effective implementation results in compromised safety and substantial losses. An effective risk management must necessarily integrate the evaluation phases with the implementation phase. This paper proposes an essential categorisation of risk reduction measures that best addresses a standard railway industry portfolio. By categorising the risk reduction options into design, operational, procedural and technical options, it is guaranteed that the efforts of the implementation facilitators (people, processes and supporting systems) are systematically harmonised. The classification is based on an integration of fundamental principles of risk reduction in the railway industry with the systems engineering approach.
This paper argues that the use of a similar classification approach is an attribute of organisations possessing a superior level of risk-reduction readiness. The integration of the proposed rational classification structure provides a solid ground for effective risk reduction.
Abstract: Although the Vietnamese catfish farming has grown
at very high rates in recent years, the industry has also faced many
problems affecting its sustainability. This paper studies the
perceptions of catfish farmers regarding risk and risk management
strategies in their production activities. Specifically, the study aims
to measure the consequences, likelihoods, and levels of risks as well
as the efficacy of risk management in Vietnamese catfish farming.
Data for the study were collected through a sample of 261 catfish
farmers in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam using a questionnaire survey
in 2008. Results show that, in general, price and production risks
were perceived as the most important risks. Farm management and
technical measures were perceived more effective than other kinds of
risk management strategies in risk reduction. Although price risks
were rated as important risks, price risk management strategies were
not perceived as important measures for risk mitigation. The results
of the study are discussed to provide implications for various
industry stakeholders, including policy makers, processors, advisors,
and developers of new risk management strategies.
Abstract: Along with the progress of our information society,
various risks are becoming increasingly common, causing multiple social problems. For this reason, risk communications for
establishing consensus among stakeholders who have different
priorities have become important. However, it is not always easy for the decision makers to agree on measures to reduce risks based on
opposing concepts, such as security, privacy and cost. Therefore, we previously developed and proposed the “Multiple Risk Communicator" (MRC) with the following functions: (1) modeling
the support role of the risk specialist, (2) an optimization engine, and (3) displaying the computed results. In this paper, MRC program
version 1.0 is applied to the personal information leakage problem. The application process and validation of the results are discussed.
Abstract: This paper presents an innovative computer system
that contributes to sustainable development of the enterprise. The
research refers to a rethinking of traditional systems of collaboration
and risk assessment, present in any organization, leading to a
sustainable enterprise. This concept integrates emerging tools that
allow the implementation and exploitation of the collective
intelligence of the enterprise, allowing the exchange of contextual,
agile and simplified information, and collaboration with networks of
customers and partners in an environment where risks are controlled.
Risk assessment is done in a systemic way: the enterprise as the
system compared to the contained departments and the enterprise as a
subsystem compared to: families of international standards and
sustainability-s responsibilities. The enterprise, in this systemic
vision, responds to the requirements that any existing system to
operate continuously in an indefinite future without reaching key
resource depletion. The research is done by integrating collaborative
science, engineering, management, psychology, obtaining thus a
cornerstone of sustainable development of the enterprise.
Abstract: The New Basel Capital Accord (Basel II) influences how financial institutions around the world, and especially European Union institutions, determine the amount of capital to reserve. However, as the recent global crisis has shown, the revision of Basel II is needed to reflect current trends, such as increased volatility and correlation, in the world financial markets. The overall objective of Basel II is to increase the safety and soundness of the international financial system. Basel II builds on three main pillars: Pillar I deals with the minimum capital requirements for credit, market and operational risk, Pillar II focuses on the supervisory review process and finally Pillar III promotes market discipline through enhanced disclosure requirements for banks. The aim of this paper is to provide the historical background, key features and impact of Basel II on financial markets. Moreover, we discuss new proposals for international bank regulation (sometimes referred to as Basel III) which include requirements for higher quality, constituency and transparency of banks' capital and risk management, regulation of OTC markets and introduction of new liquidity standards for internationally active banks.
Abstract: Author presents the results of a study conducted to identify criteria of efficient information system (IS) with serviceoriented architecture (SOA) realization and proposes a ranking method to evaluate SOA information systems using a set of architecture quality criteria before the systems are implemented. The method is used to compare 7 SOA projects and ranking result for SOA efficiency of the projects is provided. The choice of SOA realization project depends on following criteria categories: IS internal work and organization, SOA policies, guidelines and change management, processes and business services readiness, risk management and mitigation. The last criteria category was analyzed on the basis of projects statistics.
Abstract: Value engineering is an efficacious contraption for
administrators to make up their minds. Value perusals proffer the
gaffers a suitable instrument to decrease the expenditures of the life
span, quality amelioration, structural improvement, curtailment of the
construction schedule, longevity prolongation or a merging of the
aforementioned cases. Subjecting organizers to pressures on one
hand and their accountability towards their pertinent fields together
with inherent risks and ambiguities of other options on the other hand
set some comptrollers in a dilemma utilization of risk management
and the value engineering in projects manipulation with regard to
complexities of implementing projects can be wielded as a
contraption to identify and efface each item which wreaks
unnecessary expenses and time squandering sans inflicting any
damages upon the essential project applications. Of course It should
be noted that implementation of risk management and value
engineering with regard to the betterment of efficiency and functions
may lead to the project implementation timing elongation. Here time
revamping does not refer to time diminishing in the whole cases. his
article deals with risk and value engineering conceptualizations at
first. The germane reverberations effectuated due to its execution in
Iran Khodro Corporation are regarded together with the joint features
and amalgamation of the aforesaid entia; hence the proposed
blueprint is submitted to be taken advantage of in engineering and
industrial projects including Iran Khodro Corporation.
Abstract: In this paper a new method is suggested for risk
management by the numerical patterns in data-mining. These patterns
are designed using probability rules in decision trees and are cared to
be valid, novel, useful and understandable. Considering a set of
functions, the system reaches to a good pattern or better objectives.
The patterns are analyzed through the produced matrices and some
results are pointed out. By using the suggested method the direction
of the functionality route in the systems can be controlled and best
planning for special objectives be done.
Abstract: Security risk models have been successful in estimating the likelihood of attack for simple security threats. However, modeling complex system and their security risk is even a challenge. Many methods have been proposed to face this problem. Often difficult to manipulate, and not enough all-embracing they are not as famous as they should with administrators and deciders. We propose in this paper a new tool to model big systems on purpose. The software, takes into account attack threats and security strength.