Forecasting 24-Hour Ahead Electricity Load Using Time Series Models

Forecasting electricity load is important for various purposes like planning, operation and control. Forecasts can save operating and maintenance costs, increase the reliability of power supply and delivery systems, and correct decisions for future development. This paper compares various time series methods to forecast 24 hours ahead of electricity load. The methods considered are the Holt-Winters smoothing, SARIMA Modeling, LSTM Network, Fbprophet and Tensorflow probability. The performance of each method is evaluated by using the forecasting accuracy criteria namely, the Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Square Error. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) residential energy consumption data are used to train the models. The results of this study show that SARIMA model is superior to the others for 24 hours ahead forecasts. Furthermore, a Bagging technique is used to make the predictions more robust. The obtained results show that by Bagging multiple time-series forecasts we can improve the robustness of the models for 24 hour ahead electricity load forecasting.

Simulation and Assessment of Carbon Dioxide Separation by Piperazine Blended Solutions Using E-NRTL and Peng-Robinson Models: A Study of Regeneration Heat Duty

High pressure carbon dioxide (CO2) absorption from a specific off-gas in a conventional column has been evaluated for the environmental concerns by the Aspen HYSYS simulator using a wide range of single absorbents and piperazine (PZ) blended solutions to estimate the outlet CO2 concentration, CO2 loading, reboiler power supply and regeneration heat duty to choose the most efficient solution in terms of CO2 removal and required heat duty. The property package, which is compatible with all applied solutions for the simulation in this study, estimates the properties based on electrolyte non-random two-liquid (E-NRTL) model for electrolyte thermodynamics and Peng-Robinson equation of state for vapor phase and liquid hydrocarbon phase properties. The results of the simulation indicate that PZ in addition to the mixture of PZ and monoethanolamine (MEA) demand the highest regeneration heat duty compared with other studied single and blended amine solutions respectively. The blended amine solutions with the lowest PZ concentrations (5wt% and 10wt%) were considered and compared to reduce the cost of process, among which the blended solution of 10wt%PZ+35wt%MDEA (methyldiethanolamine) was found as the most appropriate solution in terms of CO2 content in the outlet gas, rich-CO2 loading and regeneration heat duty.

Taxonomy of Threats and Vulnerabilities in Smart Grid Networks

Electric power is a fundamental necessity in the 21st century. Consequently, any break in electric power is probably going to affect the general activity. To make the power supply smooth and efficient, a smart grid network is introduced which uses communication technology. In any communication network, security is essential. It has been observed from several recent incidents that adversary causes an interruption to the operation of networks. In order to resolve the issues, it is vital to understand the threats and vulnerabilities associated with the smart grid networks. In this paper, we have investigated the threats and vulnerabilities in Smart Grid Networks (SGN) and the few solutions in the literature. Proposed solutions showed developments in electricity theft countermeasures, Denial of services attacks (DoS) and malicious injection attacks detection model, as well as malicious nodes detection using watchdog like techniques and other solutions.

Low Cost Microcontroller Based ECG Machine

Electrocardiographic (ECG) machine is an important equipment to diagnose heart problems. Besides, the ECG signals are used to detect many other features of human body and behavior. But it is not so cheap and simple in operation to be used in the countries like Bangladesh, where most of the people are very low income earners. Therefore, in this paper, we have tried to implement a simple and portable ECG machine. Since Arduino Uno microcontroller is very cheap, we have used it in our system to minimize the cost. Our designed system is powered by a 2-voltage level DC power supply. It provides wireless connectivity to have ECG data either in smartphone having android operating system or a PC/laptop having Windows operating system. To get the data, a graphic user interface has been designed. Android application has also been made using IDE for Android 2.3 and API 10. Since it requires no USB host API, almost 98% Android smartphones, available in the country, will be able to use it. We have calculated the heart rate from the measured ECG by our designed machine and by an ECG machine of a reputed diagnostic center in Dhaka city for the same people at the same time on same day. Then we calculated the percentage of errors between the readings of two machines and computed its average. From this computation, we have found out that the average percentage of error is within an acceptable limit.

Canada Deuterium Uranium Updated Fire Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model for Canadian Nuclear Plants

The Canadian Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) use some portions of NUREG/CR-6850 in carrying out Fire Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). An assessment for the applicability of NUREG/CR-6850 to CANDU reactors was performed and a CANDU Fire PRA was introduced. There are 19 operating CANDU reactors in Canada at five sites (Bruce A, Bruce B, Darlington, Pickering and Point Lepreau). A fire load density survey was done for all Fire Safe Shutdown Analysis (FSSA) fire zones in all CANDU sites in Canada. National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) Standard 557 proposes that a fire load survey must be conducted by either the weighing method or the inventory method or a combination of both. The combination method results in the most accurate values for fire loads. An updated CANDU Fire PRA model is demonstrated in this paper that includes the fuel survey in all Canadian CANDU stations. A qualitative screening step for the CANDU fire PRA is illustrated in this paper to include any fire events that can damage any part of the emergency power supply in addition to FSSA cables.

Multistage Data Envelopment Analysis Model for Malmquist Productivity Index Using Grey's System Theory to Evaluate Performance of Electric Power Supply Chain in Iran

Evaluation of organizational performance is among the most important measures that help organizations and entities continuously improve their efficiency. Organizations can use the existing data and results from the comparison of units under investigation to obtain an estimation of their performance. The Malmquist Productivity Index (MPI) is an important index in the evaluation of overall productivity, which considers technological developments and technical efficiency at the same time. This article proposed a model based on the multistage MPI, considering limited data (Grey’s theory). This model can evaluate the performance of units using limited and uncertain data in a multistage process. It was applied by the electricity market manager to Iran’s electric power supply chain (EPSC), which contains uncertain data, to evaluate the performance of its actors. Results from solving the model showed an improvement in the accuracy of future performance of the units under investigation, using the Grey’s system theory. This model can be used in all case studies, in which MPI is used and there are limited or uncertain data.

Influence of Power Flow Controller on Energy Transaction Charges in Restructured Power System

The demand for power supply increases day by day in developing countries like India henceforth demand of reactive power support in the form of ancillary services provider also has been increased. The multi-line and multi-type Flexible alternating current transmission system (FACTS) controllers are playing a vital role to regulate power flow through the transmission line. Unified power flow controller and interline power flow controller can be utilized to control reactive power flow through the transmission line. In a restructured power system, the demand of such controller is being popular due to their inherent capability. The transmission pricing by using reactive power cost allocation through modified matrix methodology has been proposed. The FACTS technologies have quite costly assembly, so it is very useful to apportion the expenses throughout the restructured electricity industry. Therefore, in this work, after embedding the FACTS devices into load flow, the impact on the costs allocated to users in fraction to the transmission framework utilization has been analyzed. From the obtained results, it is clear that the total cost recovery is enhanced towards the Reactive Power flow through the different transmission line for 5 bus test system. The fair pricing policy towards reactive power can be achieved by the proposed method incorporating FACTS controller towards cost recovery of the transmission network.

The Potential of Hybrid Microgrids for Mitigating Power Outage in Lebanon

Lebanon electricity crisis continues to escalate. Rationing hours still apply across the country but with different rates. The capital Beirut is subjected to 3 hours cut while other cities, town and villages may endure 9 to 14 hours of power shortage. To mitigate this situation, private diesel generators distributed illegally all over the country are being used to bridge the gap in power supply. Almost each building in large cities has its own generator and individual villages may have more than one generator supplying their loads. These generators together with their private networks form incomplete and ill-designed and managed microgrids (MG) but can be further developed to become renewable energy-based MG operating in island- or grid-connected modes. This paper will analyze the potential of introducing MG to help resolve the energy crisis in Lebanon. It will investigate the usefulness of developing MG under the prevailing situation of existing private power supply service providers and in light of the developed national energy policy that supports renewable energy development. A case study on a distribution feeder in a rural area will be analyzed using HOMER software to demonstrate the usefulness of introducing photovoltaic (PV) arrays along the existing diesel generators for all the stakeholders; namely, the developers, the customers, the utility and the community at large. Policy recommendations regarding MG development in Lebanon will be presented on the basis of the accumulated experience in private generation and the privatization and public-private partnership laws.

Tokyo Skyscrapers: Technologically Advanced Structures in Seismic Areas

The architectural and structural analysis of selected high-rise buildings in Tokyo is presented in this paper. The capital of Japan is the most densely populated city in the world and moreover is located in one of the most active seismic zones. The combination of these factors has resulted in the creation of sophisticated designs and innovative engineering solutions, especially in the field of design and construction of high-rise buildings. The foreign architectural studios (as, for Jean Nouvel, Kohn Pedesen Associates, Skidmore, Owings & Merill) which specialize in the designing of skyscrapers, played a major role in the development of technological ideas and architectural forms for such extraordinary engineering structures. Among the projects completed by them, there are examples of high-rise buildings that set precedents for future development. An essential aspect which influences the design of high-rise buildings is the necessity to take into consideration their dynamic reaction to earthquakes and counteracting wind vortices. The need to control motions of these buildings, induced by the force coming from earthquakes and wind, led to the development of various methods and devices for dissipating energy which occur during such phenomena. Currently, Japan is a global leader in seismic technologies which safeguard seismic influence on high-rise structures. Due to these achievements the most modern skyscrapers in Tokyo are able to withstand earthquakes with a magnitude of over seven degrees at the Richter scale. Damping devices applied are of a passive, which do not require additional power supply or active one which suppresses the reaction with the input of extra energy. In recent years also hybrid dampers were used, with an additional active element to improve the efficiency of passive damping.

A 0.9 V, High-Speed, Low-Power Tunable Gain Current Mirror

A high-speed current mirror with low-power method of adjusting current gain is presented. The current mirror provides continuous gain adjustment; yet, its gain can simply be programmed digitally, as well. The structure features the ever interesting merits of linear-in-dB gain control scheme and low power/voltage operation. The performance of proposed structure is verified through the simulation in TSMC 0.18 µm CMOS Technology. The proposed tunable gain current mirror structure draws only 18 µW from 0.9 V power supply and can operate at high frequencies up to 550 MHz in the worst case condition of maximum gain setting.

The Influence of Disturbances Generated by Arc Furnaces on the Power Quality

The paper presents the impact of work on the electric arc furnace. Arc equipment is one of the largest receivers powered by the power system. Electric arc disturbances arising during melting process occurring in these furnaces are the cause of an abrupt change of the passive power of furnaces. Currents drawn by these devices undergo an abrupt change, which in turn cause voltage fluctuations and light flicker. The quantitative evaluation of the voltage fluctuations is now the basic criterion of assessment of an influence of unquiet receiver on the supplying net. The paper presents the method of determination of range of voltage fluctuations and light flicker at parallel operation of arc devices. The results of measurements of voltage fluctuations and light flicker indicators recorded in power supply networks of steelworks were presented, with different number of parallel arc devices. Measurements of energy quality parameters were aimed at verifying the proposed method in practice. It was also analyzed changes in other parameters of electricity: the content of higher harmonics, asymmetry, voltage dips.

Design of a Satellite Solar Panel Deployment Mechanism Using the Brushed DC Motor as Rotational Speed Damper

This paper presents an innovative method to control the rotational speed of a satellite solar panel during its deployment phase. A brushed DC motor has been utilized in the passive spring driven deployment mechanism to reduce the deployment speed. In order to use the DC motor as a damper, its connector terminals have been connected with an external resistance in a closed circuit. It means that, in this approach, there is no external power supply in the circuit. The working principle of this method is based on the back electromotive force (or back EMF) of the DC motor when an external torque (here the torque produced by the torsional springs) is coupled to the DC motor’s shaft. In fact, the DC motor converts to an electric generator and the current flows into the circuit and then produces the back EMF. Based on Lenz’s law, the generated current produced a torque which acts opposite to the applied external torque, and as a result, the deployment speed of the solar panel decreases. The main advantage of this method is to set an intended damping coefficient to the system via changing the external resistance. To produce the sufficient current, a gearbox has been assembled to the DC motor which magnifies the number of turns experienced by the DC motor. The coupled electro-mechanical equations of the system have been derived and solved, then, the obtained results have been presented. A full-scale prototype of the deployment mechanism has been built and tested. The potential application of brushed DC motors as a rotational speed damper has been successfully demonstrated.

Design and Analysis of 1.4 MW Hybrid Saps System for Rural Electrification in Off-Grid Applications

In this paper, optimal design of hybrid standalone power supply system (SAPS) is done for off grid applications in remote areas where transmission of power is difficult. The hybrid SAPS system uses two primary energy sources, wind and solar, and in addition to these diesel generator is also connected to meet the load demand in case of failure of wind and solar system. This paper presents mathematical modeling of 1.4 MW hybrid SAPS system for rural electrification. This paper firstly focuses on mathematical modeling of PV module connected in a string, secondly focuses on modeling of permanent magnet wind turbine generator (PMWTG). The hybrid controller is also designed for selection of power from the source available as per the load demand. The power output of hybrid SAPS system is analyzed for meeting load demands at urban as well as for rural areas.

Hand Motion and Gesture Control of Laboratory Test Equipment Using the Leap Motion Controller

In this paper, the design and development of a system to provide hand motion and gesture control of laboratory test equipment is considered and discussed. The Leap Motion controller is used to provide an input to control a laboratory power supply as part of an electronic circuit experiment. By suitable hand motions and gestures, control of the power supply is provided remotely and without the need to physically touch the equipment used. As such, it provides an alternative manner in which to control electronic equipment via a PC and is considered here within the field of human computer interaction (HCI).

Attitudes of Academic Staff towards the Use of Information Communication Technology as a Pedagogical Tool for Effective Teaching in FCT College of Education, Zuba-Abuja, Nigeria

With numerous advantages of ICT in teaching such as using images to improve the retentive memory of students, academic staff is yet to deliver instructions adequately and effectively due to no power supply, lack of technical supports and non-availability of functional ICT tools. This study was conducted to investigate the attitudes of academic staff towards the use of information communication technology as a pedagogical tool for effective teaching in FCT College of Education, Zuba-Abuja, Nigeria. A sample of 200 academic staff from five schools/faculties was involved in the study. The respondents were selected by using simple random sampling technique (SRST). A questionnaire was developed and validated by the experts in Measurement and Evaluation, and reliability co-efficient of 0.85 was obtained. It was used to gather relevant data from the respondents. This study revealed that the respondents had positive attitudes towards the use of ICT as a pedagogical tool for effective teaching. Also, the uses of ICT by the academic staff included: to encourage closer relationship for attainment of higher academic, and to deliver instructions effectively. The study also revealed that there is a significant relationship between the attitudes and the uses of ICT by the academic staff. Based on these findings, some recommendations were made which include: power supply should be provided to operate ICT facilities for effective teaching, and technical assistance on ICT usage for effective delivery of instructions should be provided among other recommendations.

Removal of Total Petroleum Hydrocarbons from Contaminated Soils by Electrochemical Method

Soil contamination phenomena are a wide world issue that has received the important attention in the last decades. The main pollutants that have affected soils are especially those resulted from the oil extraction, transport and processing. This paper presents results obtained in the framework of a research project focused on the management of contaminated sites with petroleum products/ REMPET. One of the specific objectives of the REMPET project was to assess the electrochemical treatment (improved with polarity change respect to the typical approach) as a treatment option for the remediation of total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPHs) from contaminated soils. Petroleum hydrocarbon compounds attach to soil components and are difficult to remove and degrade. Electrochemical treatment is a physicochemical treatment that has gained acceptance as an alternative method, for the remediation of organic contaminated soils comparing with the traditional methods as bioremediation and chemical oxidation. This type of treatment need short time and have high removal efficiency, being usually applied in heterogeneous soils with low permeability. During the experimental tests, the following parameters were monitored: pH, redox potential, humidity, current intensity, energy consumption. The electrochemical method was applied in an experimental setup with the next dimensions: 450 mm x 150 mm x 150 mm (L x l x h). The setup length was devised in three electrochemical cells that were connected at two power supplies. The power supplies configuration was provided in such manner that each cell has a cathode and an anode without overlapping. The initial value of TPH concentration in soil was of 1420.28 mg/kgdw. The remediation method has been applied for only 21 days, when it was already noticed an average removal efficiency of 31 %, with better results in the anode area respect to the cathode one (33% respect to 27%). The energy consumption registered after the development of the experiment was 10.6 kWh for exterior power supply and 16.1 kWh for the interior one. Taking into account that at national level, the most used methods for soil remediation are bioremediation (which needs too much time to be implemented and depends on many factors) and thermal desorption (which involves high costs in order to be implemented), the study of electrochemical treatment will give an alternative to these two methods (and their limitations).

Design of 900 MHz High Gain SiGe Power Amplifier with Linearity Improved Bias Circuit

A 900 MHz three-stage SiGe power amplifier (PA) with high power gain is presented in this paper. Volterra Series is applied to analyze nonlinearity sources of SiGe HBT device model clearly. Meanwhile, the influence of operating current to IMD3 is discussed. Then a β-helper current mirror bias circuit is applied to improve linearity, since the β-helper current mirror bias circuit can offer stable base biasing voltage. Meanwhile, it can also work as predistortion circuit when biasing voltages of three bias circuits are fine-tuned, by this way, the power gain and operating current of PA are optimized for best linearity. The three power stages which fabricated by 0.18 μm SiGe technology are bonded to the printed circuit board (PCB) to obtain impedances by Load-Pull system, then matching networks are done for best linearity with discrete passive components on PCB. The final measured three-stage PA exhibits 21.1 dBm of output power at 1 dB compression point (OP1dB) with power added efficiency (PAE) of 20.6% and 33 dB power gain under 3.3 V power supply voltage.

Design of Open Framework Based Smart ESS Profile for PV-ESS and UPS-ESS

In this paper, an open framework based smart energy storage system (ESS) profile for photovoltaic (PV)-ESS and uninterruptible power supply (UPS)-ESS is proposed and designed. An open framework based smart ESS is designed and developed for unifying the different interfaces among manufacturers. The smart ESS operates under the profile which provides the specifications of peripheral devices such as different interfaces and to the open framework. The profile requires well systemicity and expandability for addible peripheral devices. Especially, the smart ESS should provide the expansion with existing systems such as UPS and the linkage with new renewable energy technology such as PV. This paper proposes and designs an open framework based smart ESS profile for PV-ESS and UPS-ESS. The designed profile provides the existing smart ESS and also the expandability of additional peripheral devices on smart ESS such as PV and UPS.

An Efficient Tool for Mitigating Voltage Unbalance with Reactive Power Control of Distributed Grid-Connected Photovoltaic Systems

With the rapid increase of grid-connected PV systems over the last decades, genuine challenges have arisen for engineers and professionals of energy field in the planning and operation of existing distribution networks with the integration of new generation sources. However, the conventional distribution network, in its design was not expected to receive other generation outside the main power supply. The tools generally used to analyze the networks become inefficient and cannot take into account all the constraints related to the operation of grid-connected PV systems. Some of these constraints are voltage control difficulty, reverse power flow, and especially voltage unbalance which could be due to the poor distribution of single-phase PV systems in the network. In order to analyze the impact of the connection of small and large number of PV systems to the distribution networks, this paper presents an efficient optimization tool that minimizes voltage unbalance in three-phase distribution networks with active and reactive power injections from the allocation of single-phase and three-phase PV plants. Reactive power can be generated or absorbed using the available capacity and the adjustable power factor of the inverter. Good reduction of voltage unbalance can be achieved by reactive power control of the PV systems. The presented tool is based on the three-phase current injection method and the PV systems are modeled via an equivalent circuit. The primal-dual interior point method is used to obtain the optimal operating points for the systems.

Application of Single Tuned Passive Filters in Distribution Networks at the Point of Common Coupling

The harmonic distortion of voltage is important in relation to power quality due to the interaction between the large diffusion of non-linear and time-varying single-phase and three-phase loads with power supply systems. However, harmonic distortion levels can be reduced by improving the design of polluting loads or by applying arrangements and adding filters. The application of passive filters is an effective solution that can be used to achieve harmonic mitigation mainly because filters offer high efficiency, simplicity, and are economical. Additionally, possible different frequency response characteristics can work to achieve certain required harmonic filtering targets. With these ideas in mind, the objective of this paper is to determine what size single tuned passive filters work in distribution networks best, in order to economically limit violations caused at a given point of common coupling (PCC). This article suggests that a single tuned passive filter could be employed in typical industrial power systems. Furthermore, constrained optimization can be used to find the optimal sizing of the passive filter in order to reduce both harmonic voltage and harmonic currents in the power system to an acceptable level, and, thus, improve the load power factor. The optimization technique works to minimize voltage total harmonic distortions (VTHD) and current total harmonic distortions (ITHD), where maintaining a given power factor at a specified range is desired. According to the IEEE Standard 519, both indices are viewed as constraints for the optimal passive filter design problem. The performance of this technique will be discussed using numerical examples taken from previous publications.