Abstract: Edgeworth approximation is one of the most important statistical methods that has a considered contribution in the reduction of the sum of standard deviation of the independent variables’ coefficients in a Quantile Regression Model. This model estimates the conditional median or other quantiles. In this paper, we have applied approximating statistical methods in an economical problem. We have created and generated a quantile regression model to see how the profit gained is connected with the realized sales of the cosmetic products in a real data, taken from a local business. The Linear Regression of the generated profit and the realized sales was not free of autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity, so this is the reason that we have used this model instead of Linear Regression. Our aim is to analyze in more details the relation between the variables taken into study: the profit and the finalized sales and how to minimize the standard errors of the independent variable involved in this study, the level of realized sales. The statistical methods that we have applied in our work are Edgeworth Approximation for Independent and Identical distributed (IID) cases, Bootstrap version of the Model and the Edgeworth approximation for Bootstrap Quantile Regression Model. The graphics and the results that we have presented here identify the best approximating model of our study.
Abstract: This research attempts to investigate the effects of heteroscedasticity and periodicity in a Panel Data Regression Model (PDRM) by extending previous works on balanced panel data estimation within the context of fitting PDRM for Banks audit fee. The estimation of such model was achieved through the derivation of Joint Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test for homoscedasticity and zero-serial correlation, a conditional LM test for zero serial correlation given heteroscedasticity of varying degrees as well as conditional LM test for homoscedasticity given first order positive serial correlation via a two-way error component model. Monte Carlo simulations were carried out for 81 different variations, of which its design assumed a uniform distribution under a linear heteroscedasticity function. Each of the variation was iterated 1000 times and the assessment of the three estimators considered are based on Variance, Absolute bias (ABIAS), Mean square error (MSE) and the Root Mean Square (RMSE) of parameters estimates. Eighteen different models at different specified conditions were fitted, and the best-fitted model is that of within estimator when heteroscedasticity is severe at either zero or positive serial correlation value. LM test results showed that the tests have good size and power as all the three tests are significant at 5% for the specified linear form of heteroscedasticity function which established the facts that Banks operations are severely heteroscedastic in nature with little or no periodicity effects.
Abstract: This aims of this paper is to forecast the electricity spot prices. First, we focus on modeling the conditional mean of the series so we adopt a generalized fractional -factor Gegenbauer process (k-factor GARMA). Secondly, the residual from the -factor GARMA model has used as a proxy for the conditional variance; these residuals were predicted using two different approaches. In the first approach, a local linear wavelet neural network model (LLWNN) has developed to predict the conditional variance using the Back Propagation learning algorithms. In the second approach, the Gegenbauer generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity process (G-GARCH) has adopted, and the parameters of the k-factor GARMA-G-GARCH model has estimated using the wavelet methodology based on the discrete wavelet packet transform (DWPT) approach. The empirical results have shown that the k-factor GARMA-G-GARCH model outperform the hybrid k-factor GARMA-LLWNN model, and find it is more appropriate for forecasts.
Abstract: In this paper usefulness of quasi-Newton iteration
procedure in parameters estimation of the conditional variance
equation within BHHH algorithm is presented. Analytical solution of
maximization of the likelihood function using first and second
derivatives is too complex when the variance is time-varying. The
advantage of BHHH algorithm in comparison to the other
optimization algorithms is that requires no third derivatives with
assured convergence. To simplify optimization procedure BHHH
algorithm uses the approximation of the matrix of second derivatives
according to information identity. However, parameters estimation in
a/symmetric GARCH(1,1) model assuming normal distribution of
returns is not that simple, i.e. it is difficult to solve it analytically.
Maximum of the likelihood function can be founded by iteration
procedure until no further increase can be found. Because the
solutions of the numerical optimization are very sensitive to the
initial values, GARCH(1,1) model starting parameters are defined.
The number of iterations can be reduced using starting values close
to the global maximum. Optimization procedure will be illustrated in
framework of modeling volatility on daily basis of the most liquid
stocks on Croatian capital market: Podravka stocks (food industry),
Petrokemija stocks (fertilizer industry) and Ericsson Nikola Tesla
stocks (information-s-communications industry).
Abstract: Longitudinal data typically have the characteristics of
changes over time, nonlinear growth patterns, between-subjects
variability, and the within errors exhibiting heteroscedasticity and
dependence. The data exploration is more complicated than that of
cross-sectional data. The purpose of this paper is to organize/integrate
of various visual-graphical techniques to explore longitudinal data.
From the application of the proposed methods, investigators can
answer the research questions include characterizing or describing the
growth patterns at both group and individual level, identifying the time
points where important changes occur and unusual subjects, selecting
suitable statistical models, and suggesting possible within-error
variance.