Time Series Forecasting Using Various Deep Learning Models

Time Series Forecasting (TSF) is used to predict the target variables at a future time point based on the learning from previous time points. To keep the problem tractable, learning methods use data from a fixed length window in the past as an explicit input. In this paper, we study how the performance of predictive models change as a function of different look-back window sizes and different amounts of time to predict into the future. We also consider the performance of the recent attention-based transformer models, which had good success in the image processing and natural language processing domains. In all, we compare four different deep learning methods (Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Long Short-term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), and Transformer) along with a baseline method. The dataset (hourly) we used is the Beijing Air Quality Dataset from the website of University of California, Irvine (UCI), which includes a multivariate time series of many factors measured on an hourly basis for a period of 5 years (2010-14). For each model, we also report on the relationship between the performance and the look-back window sizes and the number of predicted time points into the future. Our experiments suggest that Transformer models have the best performance with the lowest Mean   Absolute Errors (MAE = 14.599, 23.273) and Root Mean Square Errors (RSME = 23.573, 38.131) for most of our single-step and multi-steps predictions. The best size for the look-back window to predict 1 hour into the future appears to be one day, while 2 or 4 days perform the best to predict 3 hours into the future.

Performance Evaluation of an Ontology-Based Arabic Sentiment Analysis

Due to the quick increase in the volume of Arabic opinions posted on various social media, Arabic sentiment analysis has become one of the most important areas of research. Compared to English, there is very little works on Arabic sentiment analysis, in particular aspect-based sentiment analysis (ABSA). In ABSA, aspect extraction is the most important task. In this paper, we propose a semantic ABSA approach for standard Arabic reviews to extract explicit aspect terms and identify the polarity of the extracted aspects. The proposed approach was evaluated using HAAD datasets. Experiments showed that the proposed approach achieved a good level of performance compared with baseline results. The F-measure was improved by 19% for the aspect term extraction tasks and 55% aspect term polarity task.

Wildfires Assessed by Remote Sense Images and Burned Land Monitoring

The tools described in this paper enable the location of burned areas where took place the annihilation of natural habitats and establishes a baseline for major changes in forest ecosystems during recovery. Moreover, the result allows the follow up of the surface fuel loading, allowing the evaluation and guidance of restoration measures to remote areas by phased time planning. This case study implements the evaluation of burned areas that suffered successive wildfires in Portugal mainland during the summer of 2017, killing more than 60 people. The goal is to show that this evaluation can be done with remote sense data free of charges in a simple laptop, with open-source software, describing the not-so-simple methodology step by step, to make it accessible for local workers in the areas attained, where the availability of information is essential for the immediate planning of mitigation measures, such as restoring road access, allocate funds for the recovery of human dwellings and assess further needs for restoration of the ecological system. Wildfires also devastate forest ecosystems having a direct impact on vegetation cover and killing or driving away the animal population, besides loss of all crops in rural areas that are essential as local resources. The economic interests are also attained, as the pinewood burned becomes useless for the noblest applications, so its value decreases, and resin extraction ends for several years.

Study of the Sloshing Phenomenon in a Tank Filled Partially with Liquid Using CFD Simulation

Reducing sloshing is one of the major challenges in industries where transporting of liquid is involved. The present study investigates the sloshing effect for different liquid levels of 50% of the tank capacity. CFD simulation for two different baffle configurations has been carried out using a time-based multiphase Volume of fluid (VOF) scheme. Baffles were introduced to examine the sloshing effect inside the tank. Results were compared against the baseline case to assess the effectiveness of baffles; maximum liquid height over the period of the simulation was considered as the parameter for measuring the sloshing effect inside the tank. It was found that the addition of baffles reduced the sloshing effect inside the tank as compared to the baseline model.

Dissecting Big Trajectory Data to Analyse Road Network Travel Efficiency

Digital innovation has played a crucial role in managing smart transportation. For this, big trajectory data collected from trav-eling vehicles, such as taxis through installed global positioning sys-tem (GPS)-enabled devices can be utilized. It offers an unprecedented opportunity to trace the movements of vehicles in fine spatiotemporal granularity. This paper aims to explore big trajectory data to measure the travel efficiency of road networks using the proposed statistical travel efficiency measure (STEM) across an entire city. Further, it identifies the cause of low travel efficiency by proposed least square approximation network-based causality exploration (LANCE). Finally, the resulting data analysis reveals the causes of low travel efficiency, along with the road segments that need to be optimized to improve the traffic conditions and thus minimize the average travel time from given point A to point B in the road network. Obtained results show that our proposed approach outperforms the baseline algorithms for measuring the travel efficiency of the road network.

Capacities of Early Childhood Education Professionals for the Prevention of Social Exclusion of Children

Both policymakers and researchers recognize that participating in early childhood education and care (ECEC) is useful for all children, especially for those who are exposed to the high risk of social exclusion. Social exclusion of children is understood as a multidimensional construct including economic, social, cultural, health, and other aspects of disadvantage and deprivation, which individually or combined can have an unfavorable effect on the current life and development of a child, as well as on the child’s development and on disadvantaged life chances in adult life. ECEC institutions should be able to promote educational approaches that portray developmental, cultural, language, and other diversity amongst children. However, little is known about the ways in which Croatian ECEC institutions recognize and respect the diversity of children and their families and how they respond to their educational needs. That is why this paper is dedicated to the analysis of the capacities of ECEC professionals to respond to the demands of educational needs of this very diverse group of children and their families. The results obtained in the frame of the project “Models of response to educational needs of children at risk of social exclusion in ECEC institutions,” funded by the Croatian Science Foundation, will be presented. The research methodology arises from explanations of educational processes and risks of social exclusion as a complex and heterogeneous phenomenon. The preliminary results of the qualitative data analysis of educational practices regarding capacities to identify and appropriately respond to the requirements of children at risk of social exclusion will be presented. The data have been collected by interviewing educational staff in 10 Croatian ECEC institutions (n = 10). The questions in the interviews were related to various aspects of inclusive institutional policy, culture, and practices. According to the analysis, it is possible to conclude that Croatian ECEC professionals are still faced with great challenges in the process of implementation of inclusive policies, culture, and practices. There are several baselines of this conclusion. The interviewed educational professionals are not familiar enough with the whole complexity and diversity of needs of children at risk of social exclusion, and the ECEC institutions do not have enough resources to provide all interventions that these children and their families need.

Incorporating Lexical-Semantic Knowledge into Convolutional Neural Network Framework for Pediatric Disease Diagnosis

The utilization of electronic medical record (EMR) data to establish the disease diagnosis model has become an important research content of biomedical informatics. Deep learning can automatically extract features from the massive data, which brings about breakthroughs in the study of EMR data. The challenge is that deep learning lacks semantic knowledge, which leads to impracticability in medical science. This research proposes a method of incorporating lexical-semantic knowledge from abundant entities into a convolutional neural network (CNN) framework for pediatric disease diagnosis. Firstly, medical terms are vectorized into Lexical Semantic Vectors (LSV), which are concatenated with the embedded word vectors of word2vec to enrich the feature representation. Secondly, the semantic distribution of medical terms serves as Semantic Decision Guide (SDG) for the optimization of deep learning models. The study evaluates the performance of LSV-SDG-CNN model on four kinds of Chinese EMR datasets. Additionally, CNN, LSV-CNN, and SDG-CNN are designed as baseline models for comparison. The experimental results show that LSV-SDG-CNN model outperforms baseline models on four kinds of Chinese EMR datasets. The best configuration of the model yielded an F1 score of 86.20%. The results clearly demonstrate that CNN has been effectively guided and optimized by lexical-semantic knowledge, and LSV-SDG-CNN model improves the disease classification accuracy with a clear margin.

Cardiac Biosignal and Adaptation in Confined Nuclear Submarine Patrol

Isolated and confined environments (ICE) present several challenges which may adversely affect human’s psychology and physiology. Submariners in Sub-Surface Ballistic Nuclear (SSBN) mission exposed to these environmental constraints must be able to perform complex tasks as part of their normal duties, as well as during crisis periods when emergency actions are required or imminent. The operational and environmental constraints they face contribute to challenge human adaptability. The impact of such a constrained environment has yet to be explored. Establishing a knowledge framework is a determining factor, particularly in view of the next long space travels. Ensuring that the crews are maintained in optimal operational conditions is a real challenge because the success of the mission depends on them. This study focused on the evaluation of the impact of stress on mental health and sensory degradation of submariners during a mission on SSBN using cardiac biosignal (heart rate variability, HRV) clustering. This is a pragmatic exploratory study of a prospective cohort included 19 submariner volunteers. HRV was recorded at baseline to classify by clustering the submariners according to their stress level based on parasympathetic (Pa) activity. Impacts of high Pa (HPa) versus low Pa (LPa) level at baseline were assessed on emotional state and sensory perception (interoception and exteroception) as a cardiac biosignal during the patrol and at a recovery time one month after. Whatever the time, no significant difference was found in mental health between groups. There are significant differences in the interoceptive, exteroceptive and physiological functioning during the patrol and at recovery time. To sum up, compared to the LPa group, the HPa maintains a higher level in psychosensory functioning during the patrol and at recovery but exhibits a decrease in Pa level. The HPa group has less adaptable HRV characteristics, less unpredictability and flexibility of cardiac biosignals while the LPa group increases them during the patrol and at recovery time. This dissociation between psychosensory and physiological adaptation suggests two treatment modalities for ICE environments. To our best knowledge, our results are the first to highlight the impact of physiological differences in the HRV profile on the adaptability of submariners. Further studies are needed to evaluate the negative emotional and cognitive effects of ICEs based on the cardiac profile. Artificial intelligence offers a promising future for maintaining high level of operational conditions. These future perspectives will not only allow submariners to be better prepared, but also to design feasible countermeasures that will help support analog environments that bring us closer to a trip to Mars.

Radioactivity Assessment of Sediments in Negombo Lagoon Sri Lanka

The distributions of naturally occurring and anthropogenic radioactive materials were determined in surface sediments taken at 27 different locations along the bank of Negombo Lagoon in Sri Lanka. Hydrographic parameters of lagoon water and the grain size analyses of the sediment samples were also carried out for this study. The conductivity of the adjacent water was varied from 13.6 mS/cm to 55.4 mS/cm near to the southern end and the northern end of the lagoon, respectively, and equally salinity levels varied from 7.2 psu to 32.1 psu. The average pH in the water was 7.6 and average water temperature was 28.7 °C. The grain size analysis emphasized the mass fractions of the samples as sand (60.9%), fine sand (30.6%) and fine silt+clay (1.3%) in the sampling locations. The surface sediment samples of wet weight, 1 kg each from upper 5-10 cm layer, were oven dried at 105 °C for 24 hours to get a constant weight, homogenized and sieved through a 2 mm sieve (IAEA technical series no. 295). The radioactivity concentrations were determined using gamma spectrometry technique. Ultra Low Background Broad Energy High Purity Ge Detector, BEGe (Model BE5030, Canberra) was used for radioactivity measurement with Canberra Industries' Laboratory Source-less Calibration Software (LabSOCS) mathematical efficiency calibration approach and Geometry composer software. The mean activity concentration was found to be 24 ± 4, 67 ± 9, 181 ± 10, 59 ± 8, 3.5 ± 0.4 and 0.47 ± 0.08 Bq/kg for 238U, 232Th, 40K, 210Pb, 235U and 137Cs respectively. The mean absorbed dose rate in air, radium equivalent activity, external hazard index, annual gonadal dose equivalent and annual effective dose equivalent were 60.8 nGy/h, 137.3 Bq/kg, 0.4, 425.3 mSv/year and 74.6 mSv/year, respectively. The results of this study will provide baseline information on the natural and artificial radioactive isotopes and environmental pollution associated with information on radiological risk.

Machine Learning Based Approach for Measuring Promotion Effectiveness in Multiple Parallel Promotions’ Scenarios

Promotion is a key element in the retail business. Thus, analysis of promotions to quantify their effectiveness in terms of Revenue and/or Margin is an essential activity in the retail industry. However, measuring the sales/revenue uplift is based on estimations, as the actual sales/revenue without the promotion is not present. Further, the presence of Halo and Cannibalization in a multiple parallel promotions’ scenario complicates the problem. Calculating Baseline by considering inter-brand/competitor items or using Halo and Cannibalization's impact on Revenue calculations by considering Baseline as an interpretation of items’ unit sales in neighboring nonpromotional weeks individually may not capture the overall Revenue uplift in the case of multiple parallel promotions. Hence, this paper proposes a Machine Learning based method for calculating the Revenue uplift by considering the Halo and Cannibalization impact on the Baseline and the Revenue. In the first section of the proposed methodology, Baseline of an item is calculated by incorporating the impact of the promotions on its related items. In the later section, the Revenue of an item is calculated by considering both Halo and Cannibalization impacts. Hence, this methodology enables correct calculation of the overall Revenue uplift due a given promotion.

Electronics Thermal Management Driven Design of an IP65-Rated Motor Inverter

Thermal management of electronic components packaged inside an IP65 rated enclosure is of prime importance in industrial applications. Electrical enclosure protects the multiple board configurations such as inverter, power, controller board components, busbars, and various power dissipating components from harsh environments. Industrial environments often experience relatively warm ambient conditions, and the electronic components housed in the enclosure dissipate heat, due to which the enclosures and the components require thermal management as well as reduction of internal ambient temperatures. Design of Experiments based thermal simulation approach with MOSFET arrangement, Heat sink design, Enclosure Volume, Copper and Aluminum Spreader, Power density, and Printed Circuit Board (PCB) type were considered to optimize air temperature inside the IP65 enclosure to ensure conducive operating temperature for controller board and electronic components through the different modes of heat transfer viz. conduction, natural convection and radiation using Ansys ICEPAK. MOSFET’s with the parallel arrangement, IP65 enclosure molded heat sink with rectangular fins on both enclosures, specific enclosure volume to satisfy the power density, Copper spreader to conduct heat to the enclosure, optimized power density value and selecting Aluminum clad PCB which improves the heat transfer were the contributors towards achieving a conducive operating temperature inside the IP-65 rated Motor Inverter enclosure. A reduction of 52 ℃ was achieved in internal ambient temperature inside the IP65 enclosure between baseline and final design parameters, which met the operative temperature requirements of the electronic components inside the IP-65 rated Motor Inverter.

Adaptive Envelope Protection Control for the below and above Rated Regions of Wind Turbines

This paper presents a wind turbine envelope protection control algorithm that protects Variable Speed Variable Pitch (VSVP) wind turbines from damage during operation throughout their below and above rated regions, i.e. from cut-in to cut-out wind speed. The proposed approach uses a neural network that can adapt to turbines and their operating points. An algorithm monitors instantaneous wind and turbine states, predicts a wind speed that would push the turbine to a pre-defined envelope limit and, when necessary, realizes an avoidance action. Simulations are realized using the MS Bladed Wind Turbine Simulation Model for the NREL 5 MW wind turbine equipped with baseline controllers. In all simulations, through the proposed algorithm, it is observed that the turbine operates safely within the allowable limit throughout the below and above rated regions. Two example cases, adaptations to turbine operating points for the below and above rated regions and protections are investigated in simulations to show the capability of the proposed envelope protection system (EPS) algorithm, which reduces excessive wind turbine loads and expectedly increases the turbine service life.

Physiological Effects during Aerobatic Flights on Science Astronaut Candidates

Spaceflight is considered the last frontier in terms of science, technology, and engineering. But it is also the next frontier in terms of human physiology and performance. After more than 200,000 years humans have evolved under earth’s gravity and atmospheric conditions, spaceflight poses environmental stresses for which human physiology is not adapted. Hypoxia, accelerations, and radiation are among such stressors, our research involves suborbital flights aiming to develop effective countermeasures in order to assure sustainable human space presence. The physiologic baseline of spaceflight participants is subject to great variability driven by age, gender, fitness, and metabolic reserve. The objective of the present study is to characterize different physiologic variables in a population of STEM practitioners during an aerobatic flight. Cardiovascular and pulmonary responses were determined in Science Astronaut Candidates (SACs) during unusual attitude aerobatic flight indoctrination. Physiologic data recordings from 20 subjects participating in high-G flight training were analyzed. These recordings were registered by wearable sensor-vest that monitored electrocardiographic tracings (ECGs), signs of dysrhythmias or other electric disturbances during all the flight. The same cardiovascular parameters were also collected approximately 10 min pre-flight, during each high-G/unusual attitude maneuver and 10 min after the flights. The ratio (pre-flight/in-flight/post-flight) of the cardiovascular responses was calculated for comparison of inter-individual differences. The resulting tracings depicting the cardiovascular responses of the subjects were compared against the G-loads (Gs) during the aerobatic flights to analyze cardiovascular variability aspects and fluid/pressure shifts due to the high Gs. In-flight ECG revealed cardiac variability patterns associated with rapid Gs onset in terms of reduced heart rate (HR) and some scattered dysrhythmic patterns (15% premature ventricular contractions-type) that were considered as triggered physiological responses to high-G/unusual attitude training and some were considered as instrument artifact. Variation events were observed in subjects during the +Gz and –Gz maneuvers and these may be due to preload and afterload, sudden shift. Our data reveal that aerobatic flight influenced the breathing rate of the subject, due in part by the various levels of energy expenditure due to the increased use of muscle work during these aerobatic maneuvers. Noteworthy was the high heterogeneity in the different physiological responses among a relatively small group of SACs exposed to similar aerobatic flights with similar Gs exposures. The cardiovascular responses clearly demonstrated that SACs were subjected to significant flight stress. Routine ECG monitoring during high-G/unusual attitude flight training is recommended to capture pathology underlying dangerous dysrhythmias in suborbital flight safety. More research is currently being conducted to further facilitate the development of robust medical screening, medical risk assessment approaches, and suborbital flight training in the context of the evolving commercial human suborbital spaceflight industry. A more mature and integrative medical assessment method is required to understand the physiology state and response variability among highly diverse populations of prospective suborbital flight participants.

Using Dynamic Glazing to Eliminate Mechanical Cooling in Multi-family Highrise Buildings

Multifamily residential buildings are increasingly being built with large glazed areas to provide tenants with greater daylight and outdoor views. However, traditional double-glazed window assemblies can lead to significant thermal discomfort from high radiant temperatures as well as increased cooling energy use to address solar gains. Dynamic glazing provides an effective solution by actively controlling solar transmission to maintain indoor thermal comfort, without compromising the visual connection to outdoors. This study uses thermal simulations across three Canadian cities (Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal) to verify if dynamic glazing along with operable windows and ceiling fans can maintain the indoor operative temperature of a prototype southwest facing high-rise apartment unit within the ASHRAE 55 adaptive comfort range for a majority of the year, without any mechanical cooling. Since this study proposes the use of natural ventilation for cooling and the typical building life cycle is 30-40 years, the typical weather files have been modified based on accepted global warming projections for increased air temperatures by 2050. Results for the prototype apartment confirm that thermal discomfort with dynamic glazing occurs only for less than 0.7% of the year. However, in the baseline scenario with low-E glass there are up to 7% annual hours of discomfort despite natural ventilation with operable windows and improved air movement with ceiling fans.

Practical Techniques of Improving State Estimator Solution

State Estimator became an intrinsic part of Energy Management Systems (EMS). The SCADA measurements received from the field are processed by the State Estimator in order to accurately determine the actual operating state of the power systems and provide that information to other real-time network applications. All EMS vendors offer a State Estimator functionality in their baseline products. However, setting up and ensuring that State Estimator consistently produces a reliable solution often consumes a substantial engineering effort. This paper provides generic recommendations and describes a simple practical approach to efficient tuning of State Estimator, based on the working experience with major EMS software platforms and consulting projects in many electrical utilities of the USA.

The Estimation of Bird Diversity Loss and Gain as an Impact of Oil Palm Plantation: Study Case in KJNP Estate Riau Province

The rapid growth of oil palm industry in Indonesia raised many negative accusations from various parties, who said that oil palm plantation is damaging the environment and biodiversity, including birds. Since research on oil palm plantation impacts on bird diversity is still limited, this study needs to be developed in order to gain further learning and understanding. Data on bird diversity were collected in March 2018 in KJNP Estate, Riau Province using strip transect method on five different land cover types (young, intermediate, and old growth of oil palm plantation, high conservation value area, and crops field or the baseline). The observations were conducted simultaneously, with three repetitions. The result shows that the baseline has 19 species of birds and land cover after the oil palm plantation has 39 species. HCV (high conservation value) area has the highest increase in diversity value. Oil palm plantation has changed the composition of bird species. The highest similarity index is shown by young growth oil palm land cover with total score 0.65, meanwhile the lowest similarity index with total score 0.43 is shown by HCV area. Overall, the existence of oil palm plantation made a positive impact by increasing bird species diversity, with total 23 species gained and 3 species lost.

Pilot Trial of Evidence-Based Integrative Group Therapy to Improve Executive Functioning among Adults: Implications for Community Mental Health and Training Clinics

Objective: Executive functioning (EF) deficits underlie several mental health diagnoses including ADHD, anxiety, and depression. Community mental health clinics face extensive waitlists for services with many referrals involving EF deficits. A pilot trial of a four-week group therapy was developed using key components from Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy (CBT), Dialectical Behavior Therapy (DBT), and mindfulness with an aim to improve EF skills and offer low-fee services. Method: Eight adults (M = 34.5) waiting for services at a community clinic were enrolled in a four-week group therapy at an in-house training clinic for doctoral trainees. Baseline EF, pre-/post-intervention ADHD and distress symptoms, group satisfaction, and curriculum helpfulness were assessed. Results: Downward trends in ADHD and distress symptoms pre/post-intervention were not significant. Favorable responses on group satisfaction and helpfulness suggest clinical utility. Conclusion: Preliminary pilot data from a brief group therapy to improve EF may be an efficacious, acceptable, and feasible intervention for adults waiting for services at community mental health and training clinics where there are high demands and limits to services and staffs.

A Framework for Improving Trade Contractors’ Productivity Tracking Methods

Despite being one of the most significant economic contributors of the country, Canada’s construction industry is lagging behind other sectors when it comes to labor productivity improvements. The construction industry is very collaborative as a general contractor, will hire trade contractors to perform most of a project’s work; meaning low productivity from one contractor can have a domino effect on the shared success of a project. To address this issue and encourage trade contractors to improve their productivity tracking methods, an investigative study was done on the productivity views and tracking methods of various trade contractors. Additionally, an in-depth review was done on four standard tracking methods used in the construction industry: cost codes, benchmarking, the job productivity measurement (JPM) standard, and WorkFace Planning (WFP). The four tracking methods were used as a baseline in comparing the trade contractors’ responses, determining gaps within their current tracking methods, and for making improvement recommendations. 15 interviews were conducted with different trades to analyze how contractors value productivity. The results of these analyses indicated that there seem to be gaps within the construction industry when it comes to an understanding of the purpose and value in productivity tracking. The trade contractors also shared their current productivity tracking systems; which were then compared to the four standard tracking methods used in the construction industry. Gaps were identified in their various tracking methods and using a framework; recommendations were made based on the type of trade on how to improve how they track productivity.

Numerical and Experimental Investigation of Air Distribution System of Larder Type Refrigerator

Almost all of the domestic refrigerators operate on the principle of the vapor compression refrigeration cycle and removal of heat from the refrigerator cabinets is done via one of the two methods: natural convection or forced convection. In this study, airflow and temperature distributions inside a 375L no-frost type larder cabinet, in which cooling is provided by forced convection, are evaluated both experimentally and numerically. Airflow rate, compressor capacity and temperature distribution in the cooling chamber are known to be some of the most important factors that affect the cooling performance and energy consumption of a refrigerator. The objective of this study is to evaluate the original temperature distribution in the larder cabinet, and investigate for better temperature distribution solutions throughout the refrigerator domain via system optimizations that could provide uniform temperature distribution. The flow visualization and airflow velocity measurements inside the original refrigerator are performed via Stereoscopic Particle Image Velocimetry (SPIV). In addition, airflow and temperature distributions are investigated numerically with Ansys Fluent. In order to study the heat transfer inside the aforementioned refrigerator, forced convection theories covering the following cases are applied: closed rectangular cavity representing heat transfer inside the refrigerating compartment. The cavity volume has been represented with finite volume elements and is solved computationally with appropriate momentum and energy equations (Navier-Stokes equations). The 3D model is analyzed as transient, with k-ε turbulence model and SIMPLE pressure-velocity coupling for turbulent flow situation. The results obtained with the 3D numerical simulations are in quite good agreement with the experimental airflow measurements using the SPIV technique. After Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis of the baseline case, the effects of three parameters: compressor capacity, fan rotational speed and type of shelf (glass or wire) are studied on the energy consumption; pull down time, temperature distributions in the cabinet. For each case, energy consumption based on experimental results is calculated. After the analysis, the main effective parameters for temperature distribution inside a cabin and energy consumption based on CFD simulation are determined and simulation results are supplied for Design of Experiments (DOE) as input data for optimization. The best configuration with minimum energy consumption that provides minimum temperature difference between the shelves inside the cabinet is determined.

Diagnosis of Intermittent High Vibration Peaks in Industrial Gas Turbine Using Advanced Vibrations Analysis

This paper provides a comprehensive study pertaining to diagnosis of intermittent high vibrations on an industrial gas turbine using detailed vibrations analysis, followed by its rectification. Engro Polymer & Chemicals Limited, a Chlor-Vinyl complex located in Pakistan has a captive combined cycle power plant having two 28 MW gas turbines (make Hitachi) & one 15 MW steam turbine. In 2018, the organization faced an issue of high vibrations on one of the gas turbines. These high vibration peaks appeared intermittently on both compressor’s drive end (DE) & turbine’s non-drive end (NDE) bearing. The amplitude of high vibration peaks was between 150-170% on the DE bearing & 200-300% on the NDE bearing from baseline values. In one of these episodes, the gas turbine got tripped on “High Vibrations Trip” logic actuated at 155µm. Limited instrumentation is available on the machine, which is monitored with GE Bently Nevada 3300 system having two proximity probes installed at Turbine NDE, Compressor DE &at Generator DE & NDE bearings. Machine’s transient ramp-up & steady state data was collected using ADRE SXP & DSPI 408. Since only 01 key phasor is installed at Turbine high speed shaft, a derived drive key phasor was configured in ADRE to obtain low speed shaft rpm required for data analysis. By analyzing the Bode plots, Shaft center line plot, Polar plot & orbit plots; rubbing was evident on Turbine’s NDE along with increased bearing clearance of Turbine’s NDE radial bearing. The subject bearing was then inspected & heavy deposition of carbonized coke was found on the labyrinth seals of bearing housing with clear rubbing marks on shaft & housing covering at 20-25 degrees on the inner radius of labyrinth seals. The collected coke sample was tested in laboratory & found to be the residue of lube oil in the bearing housing. After detailed inspection & cleaning of shaft journal area & bearing housing, new radial bearing was installed. Before assembling the bearing housing, cleaning of bearing cooling & sealing air lines was also carried out as inadequate flow of cooling & sealing air can accelerate coke formation in bearing housing. The machine was then taken back online & data was collected again using ADRE SXP & DSPI 408 for health analysis. The vibrations were found in acceptable zone as per ISO standard 7919-3 while all other parameters were also within vendor defined range. As a learning from subject case, revised operating & maintenance regime has also been proposed to enhance machine’s reliability.