Abstract: The COVID-19 dataset is obtained by extracting weather, longitude, latitude, ISO3666, cases and death of coronavirus patients across the globe. The data were extracted for a period of eight day choosing uniform time within the specified period. Then mapping of cases and deaths with reverence to continents were obtained. Bayesian Geostastical modelling was carried out on the dataset. The study found out that countries in the tropical region suffered less deaths/attacks compared to countries in the temperate region, this is due to high temperature in the tropical region.
Abstract: The use of advanced methods has been increasing day by day in the maritime sector, which is one of the sectors least affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. It is aimed to minimize accidents, especially by using advanced methods in the investigation of marine accidents. This research aimed to conduct an exploratory statistical analysis of particular ship accidents in the Transport Safety Investigation Center of Turkey database. 46 ship accidents, which occurred between 2010-2018, have been selected from the database. In addition to the availability of a reliable and comprehensive database, taking advantage of the robust statistical models for investigation is critical to improving the safety of ships. Thus, descriptive analysis has been used in the research to identify causes and conditional factors related to different types of ship accidents. The research outcomes underline the fact that environmental factors and day and night ratio have great influence on ship safety.
Abstract: The main objective of this study is to find a suitable approach to monitor the land infrastructure growth over a period of time using multispectral satellite images. Bi-temporal change detection method is unable to indicate the continuous change occurring over a long period of time. To achieve this objective, the approach used here estimates a statistical model from series of multispectral image data over a long period of time, assuming there is no considerable change during that time period and then compare it with the multispectral image data obtained at a later time. The change is estimated pixel-wise. Statistical composite hypothesis technique is used for estimating pixel based change detection in a defined region. The generalized likelihood ratio test (GLRT) is used to detect the changed pixel from probabilistic estimated model of the corresponding pixel. The changed pixel is detected assuming that the images have been co-registered prior to estimation. To minimize error due to co-registration, 8-neighborhood pixels around the pixel under test are also considered. The multispectral images from Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 from 2015 to 2018 are used for this purpose. There are different challenges in this method. First and foremost challenge is to get quite a large number of datasets for multivariate distribution modelling. A large number of images are always discarded due to cloud coverage. Due to imperfect modelling there will be high probability of false alarm. Overall conclusion that can be drawn from this work is that the probabilistic method described in this paper has given some promising results, which need to be pursued further.
Abstract: The statistical modelling of precipitation data for a
given portion of territory is fundamental for the monitoring of
climatic conditions and for Hydrogeological Management Plans
(HMP). This modelling is rendered particularly complex by the
changes taking place in the frequency and intensity of precipitation,
presumably to be attributed to the global climate change. This paper
applies the Wakeby distribution (with 5 parameters) as a theoretical
reference model. The number and the quality of the parameters
indicate that this distribution may be the appropriate choice for
the interpolations of the hydrological variables and, moreover, the
Wakeby is particularly suitable for describing phenomena producing
heavy tails. The proposed estimation methods for determining the
value of the Wakeby parameters are the same as those used for
density functions with heavy tails. The commonly used procedure
is the classic method of moments weighed with probabilities
(probability weighted moments, PWM) although this has often shown
difficulty of convergence, or rather, convergence to a configuration
of inappropriate parameters. In this paper, we analyze the problem of
the likelihood estimation of a random variable expressed through its
quantile function. The method of maximum likelihood, in this case,
is more demanding than in the situations of more usual estimation.
The reasons for this lie, in the sampling and asymptotic properties of
the estimators of maximum likelihood which improve the estimates
obtained with indications of their variability and, therefore, their
accuracy and reliability. These features are highly appreciated in
contexts where poor decisions, attributable to an inefficient or
incomplete information base, can cause serious damages.
Abstract: It can be frequently observed that the data arising in our environment have a hierarchical or a nested structure attached with the data. Multilevel modelling is a modern approach to handle this kind of data. When multilevel modelling is combined with a binary response, the estimation methods get complex in nature and the usual techniques are derived from quasi-likelihood method. The estimation methods which are compared in this study are, marginal quasi-likelihood (order 1 & order 2) (MQL1, MQL2) and penalized quasi-likelihood (order 1 & order 2) (PQL1, PQL2). A statistical model is of no use if it does not reflect the given dataset. Therefore, checking the adequacy of the fitted model through a goodness-of-fit (GOF) test is an essential stage in any modelling procedure. However, prior to usage, it is also equally important to confirm that the GOF test performs well and is suitable for the given model. This study assesses the suitability of the GOF test developed for binary response multilevel models with respect to the method used in model estimation. An extensive set of simulations was conducted using MLwiN (v 2.19) with varying number of clusters, cluster sizes and intra cluster correlations. The test maintained the desirable Type-I error for models estimated using PQL2 and it failed for almost all the combinations of MQL. Power of the test was adequate for most of the combinations in all estimation methods except MQL1. Moreover, models were fitted using the four methods to a real-life dataset and performance of the test was compared for each model.
Abstract: Electronic apex locators (EAL) has been widely used
clinically for measuring root canal working length with high accuracy,
which is crucial for successful endodontic treatment. In order to
maintain high accuracy in different measurement environments,
this study presented a system for root canal length measurement
based on multifrequency impedance method. This measuring system
can generate a sweep current with frequencies from 100 Hz to
1 MHz through a direct digital synthesizer. Multiple impedance
ratios with different combinations of frequencies were obtained
and transmitted by an analog-to-digital converter and several of
them with representatives will be selected after data process. The
system analyzed the functional relationship between these impedance
ratios and the distance between the file and the apex with statistics
by measuring plenty of teeth. The position of the apical foramen
can be determined by the statistical model using these impedance
ratios. The experimental results revealed that the accuracy of
the system based on multifrequency impedance ratios method to
determine the position of the apical foramen was higher than the
dual-frequency impedance ratio method. Besides that, for more
complex measurement environments, the performance of the system
was more stable.
Abstract: Ambient air pollution with fine particulate matter (PM10) is a systematic permanent problem in many countries around the world. The accumulation of a large number of measurements of both the PM10 concentrations and the accompanying atmospheric factors allow for their statistical modeling to detect dependencies and forecast future pollution. This study applies the classification and regression trees (CART) method for building and analyzing PM10 models. In the empirical study, average daily air data for the city of Pleven, Bulgaria for a period of 5 years are used. Predictors in the models are seven meteorological variables, time variables, as well as lagged PM10 variables and some lagged meteorological variables, delayed by 1 or 2 days with respect to the initial time series, respectively. The degree of influence of the predictors in the models is determined. The selected best CART models are used to forecast future PM10 concentrations for two days ahead after the last date in the modeling procedure and show very accurate results.
Abstract: Speech disfluencies are common in spontaneous speech. The primary purpose of this study was to distinguish linguistic disfluencies from stuttering disfluencies in bilingual Tamil–English (TE) speaking children. The secondary purpose was to determine whether their disfluencies are mediated by native language dominance and/or on an early onset of developmental stuttering at childhood. A detailed study was carried out to identify the prosodic and acoustic features that uniquely represent the disfluent regions of speech. This paper focuses on statistical modeling of repetitions, prolongations, pauses and interjections in the speech corpus encompassing bilingual spontaneous utterances from school going children – English and Tamil. Two classifiers including Hidden Markov Models (HMM) and the Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), which is a class of feed-forward artificial neural network, were compared in the classification of disfluencies. The results of the classifiers document the patterns of disfluency in spontaneous speech samples of school-aged children to distinguish between Children Who Stutter (CWS) and Children with Language Impairment CLI). The ability of the models in classifying the disfluencies was measured in terms of F-measure, Recall, and Precision.
Abstract: Crank shaft length, connecting rod length, crank angle, engine rpm, cylinder bore, mass of piston and compression ratio are the inputs that can control the performance of the slider crank mechanism and then its efficiency. Several combinations of these seven inputs are used and compared. The throughput engine torque predicted by the simulation is analyzed through two different regression models, with and without interaction terms, developed according to multi-linear regression using LU decomposition to solve system of algebraic equations. These models are validated. A regression model in seven inputs including their interaction terms lowered the polynomial degree from 3rd degree to 1st degree and suggested valid predictions and stable explanations.
Abstract: The role and relative importance of intrinsic and extrinsic factors in the development of complex diseases such as cancer still remains a controversial issue. Determining the amount of variation explained by these factors needs experimental data and statistical models. These models are nevertheless based on the occurrence and accumulation of random mutational events during stem cell division, thus rendering cancer development a stochastic outcome. We demonstrate that not only individual genome sequencing is uninformative in determining cancer risk, but also assigning a unique genome sequence to any given individual (healthy or affected) is not meaningful. Current whole-genome sequencing approaches are therefore unlikely to realize the promise of personalized medicine. In conclusion, since genome sequence differs from cell to cell and changes over time, it seems that determining the risk factor of complex diseases based on genome sequence is somewhat unrealistic, and therefore, the resulting data are likely to be inherently uninformative.
Abstract: This study statistically models the surface f0 contour and the underlying pitch target of a well-studied third sandhi tone of Mandarin Chinese. Although the growth curve analysis on the surface f0 contours indicates non-neutralization of this sandhi tone (T3) and the base T2, their underlying pitch targets do show neutralization. These results in Mandarin are also consistent with the perception of native speakers, where they cannot distinguish the third T3 from the base T2, compensating contextual variation. It is possible to use the proposed statistical procedure of testing underlying pitch targets to verify tone sandhi processes in other tonal languages.
Abstract: This work contributes a statistical model and simulation
framework yielding the best estimate possible for the potential
herbicide reduction when using the MoDiCoVi algorithm all the
while requiring a efficacy comparable to conventional spraying. In
June 2013 a maize field located in Denmark were seeded. The field
was divided into parcels which was assigned to one of two main
groups: 1) Control, consisting of subgroups of no spray and full dose
spraty; 2) MoDiCoVi algorithm subdivided into five different leaf
cover thresholds for spray activation. In addition approximately 25%
of the parcels were seeded with additional weeds perpendicular to
the maize rows. In total 299 parcels were randomly assigned with
the 28 different treatment combinations. In the statistical analysis,
bootstrapping was used for balancing the number of replicates. The
achieved potential herbicide savings was found to be 70% to 95%
depending on the initial weed coverage. However additional field
trials covering more seasons and locations are needed to verify
the generalisation of these results. There is a potential for further
herbicide savings as the time interval between the first and second
spraying session was not long enough for the weeds to turn yellow,
instead they only stagnated in growth.
Abstract: Understanding the statistics of non-isotropic scattering multipath channels that fade randomly with respect to time, frequency, and space in a mobile environment is very crucial for the accurate detection of received signals in wireless and cellular communication systems. In this paper, we derive stochastic models for the probability density function (PDF) of the shift in the carrier frequency caused by the Doppler Effect on the received illuminating signal in the presence of a dominant line of sight. Our derivation is based on a generalized Clarke’s and a two-wave partially developed scattering models, where the statistical distribution of the frequency shift is shown to be consistent with the power spectral density of the Doppler shifted signal.
Abstract: Dynamics of cathode spot has become a major part
of vacuum arc discharge with its high academic interest and
wide application potential. In this article, using a three-dimensional
statistical model, we simulate the distribution of the ignition
probability of a new cathode spot occurring in different magnetic
pressure on old cathode spot surface and at different arcing time.
This model for the ignition probability of a new cathode spot was
proposed in two typical situations, one by the pure isotropic random
walk in the absence of an external magnetic field, other by the
retrograde motion in external magnetic field, in parallel with the
cathode surface. We mainly focus on developed relationship between
the ignition probability density distribution of a new cathode spot and
the external magnetic field.
Abstract: This study investigates the effect of two important parameters (length of curing period and percentage of the added binder) on the strength of soil treated with OPC. An intermediate plasticity silty clayey soil with medium organic content was used in this study. This soft soil was treated with different percentages of a commercially available cement type 32.5-N. laboratory experiments were carried out on the soil treated with 0, 1.5, 3, 6, 9, and 12% OPC by the dry weight to determine the effect of OPC on the compaction parameters, consistency limits, and the compressive strength. Unconfined compressive strength (UCS) test was carried out on cement-treated specimens after exposing them to different curing periods (1, 3, 7, 14, 28, and 90 days). The results of UCS test were used to develop a non-linear multi-regression model to find the relationship between the predicted and the measured maximum compressive strength of the treated soil (qu). The results indicated that there was a significant improvement in the index of plasticity (IP) by treating with OPC; IP was decreased from 20.2 to 14.1 by using 12% of OPC; this percentage was enough to increase the UCS of the treated soil up to 1362 kPa after 90 days of curing. With respect to the statistical model of the predicted qu, the results showed that the regression coefficients (R2) was equal to 0.8534 which indicates a good reproducibility for the constructed model.
Abstract: Monitoring of tool wear in milling operations is essential for achieving the desired dimensional accuracy and surface finish of a machined workpiece. Although there are numerous statistical models and artificial intelligence techniques available for monitoring the wear of cutting tools, these techniques cannot pin point which cutting edge of the tool, or which insert in the case of indexable tooling, is worn or broken. Currently, the task of monitoring the wear on the tool cutting edges is carried out by the operator who performs a manual inspection, causing undesirable stoppages of machine tools and consequently resulting in costs incurred from lost productivity. The present study is concerned with the development of a flute tracking system to segment signals related to each physical flute of a cutter with three flutes used in an end milling operation. The purpose of the system is to monitor the cutting condition for individual flutes separately in order to determine their progressive wear rates and to predict imminent tool failure. The results of this study clearly show that signals associated with each flute can be effectively segmented using the proposed flute tracking system. Furthermore, the results illustrate that by segmenting the sensor signal by flutes it is possible to investigate the wear in each physical cutting edge of the cutting tool. These findings are significant in that they facilitate the online condition monitoring of a cutting tool for each specific flute without the need for operators/engineers to perform manual inspections of the tool.
Abstract: Different knitted structures and knitted parameters play a vital role in the stretch and recovery management of compression sportswear in addition to the materials use to generate this stretch and recovery behavior of the fabric. The present work was planned to predict the different performance indicators of a compression sportswear fabric with some ground parameters i.e. base yarn stitch length (polyester as base yarn and spandex as plating yarn involve to make a compression fabric) and linear density of the spandex which is a key material of any sportswear fabric. The prediction models were generated by response surface method for performance indicators such as stretch & recovery percentage, compression generated by the garment on body, total elongation on application of high power force and load generated on certain percentage extension in fabric. Certain physical properties of the fabric were also modeled using these two parameters.
Abstract: Fading noise degrades the performance of cellular
communication, most notably in femto- and pico-cells in 3G and 4G
systems. When the wireless channel consists of a small number of
scattering paths, the statistics of fading noise is not analytically
tractable and poses a serious challenge to developing closed
canonical forms that can be analysed and used in the design of
efficient and optimal receivers. In this context, noise is multiplicative
and is referred to as stochastically local fading. In many analytical
investigation of multiplicative noise, the exponential or Gamma
statistics are invoked. More recent advances by the author of this
paper utilized a Poisson modulated-weighted generalized Laguerre
polynomials with controlling parameters and uncorrelated noise
assumptions. In this paper, we investigate the statistics of multidiversity
stochastically local area fading channel when the channel
consists of randomly distributed Rayleigh and Rician scattering
centers with a coherent Nakagami-distributed line of sight component
and an underlying doubly stochastic Poisson process driven by a
lognormal intensity. These combined statistics form a unifying triply
stochastic filtered marked Poisson point process model.
Abstract: This article presents the main results of a numerical
investigation on the uncertainty of dynamic response of structures
with statistically correlated random damping Gamma distributed. A
computational method based on a Linear Statistical Model (LSM) is
implemented to predict second order statistics for the response of a
typical industrial building structure. The significance of random
damping with correlated parameters and its implications on the
sensitivity of structural peak response in the neighborhood of a
resonant frequency are discussed in light of considerable ranges of
damping uncertainties and correlation coefficients. The results are
compared to those generated using Monte Carlo simulation
techniques. The numerical results obtained show the importance of
damping uncertainty and statistical correlation of damping
coefficients when obtaining accurate probabilistic estimates of
dynamic response of structures. Furthermore, the effectiveness of the
LSM model to efficiently predict uncertainty propagation for
structural dynamic problems with correlated damping parameters is
demonstrated.
Abstract: Speaker Identification (SI) is the task of establishing
identity of an individual based on his/her voice characteristics. The SI
task is typically achieved by two-stage signal processing: training and
testing. The training process calculates speaker specific feature
parameters from the speech and generates speaker models
accordingly. In the testing phase, speech samples from unknown
speakers are compared with the models and classified. Even though
performance of speaker identification systems has improved due to
recent advances in speech processing techniques, there is still need of
improvement. In this paper, a Closed-Set Tex-Independent Speaker
Identification System (CISI) based on a Multiple Classifier System
(MCS) is proposed, using Mel Frequency Cepstrum Coefficient
(MFCC) as feature extraction and suitable combination of vector
quantization (VQ) and Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) together
with Expectation Maximization algorithm (EM) for speaker
modeling. The use of Voice Activity Detector (VAD) with a hybrid
approach based on Short Time Energy (STE) and Statistical
Modeling of Background Noise in the pre-processing step of the
feature extraction yields a better and more robust automatic speaker
identification system. Also investigation of Linde-Buzo-Gray (LBG)
clustering algorithm for initialization of GMM, for estimating the
underlying parameters, in the EM step improved the convergence rate
and systems performance. It also uses relative index as confidence
measures in case of contradiction in identification process by GMM
and VQ as well. Simulation results carried out on voxforge.org
speech database using MATLAB highlight the efficacy of the
proposed method compared to earlier work.