Abstract: A probabilistic formulation to assess the slopes safety under the hazard of strong storms is presented and illustrated through a slope in Mexico. The formulation is based on the classical safety factor (SF) used in practice to appraise the slope stability, but it is introduced the treatment of uncertainties, and the slope failure probability is calculated as the probability that SF
Abstract: Retaining slope structures are increasingly considered in geotechnical engineering projects due to extensive urban cities growth. These kinds of engineering constructions may present instabilities over the time and may require reinforcement or even rebuilding of the structure. In this context, statistical analysis is an important tool for decision making regarding retaining structures. This study approaches the failure probability of the construction of a retaining wall over the debris of an old and collapsed one. The new solution’s extension length will be of approximately 350 m and will be located over the margins of the Lake Paranoá, Brasilia, in the capital of Brazil. The building process must also account for the utilization of the ruins as a caisson. A series of in situ and laboratory experiments defined local soil strength parameters. A Standard Penetration Test (SPT) defined the in situ soil stratigraphy. Also, the parameters obtained were verified using soil data from a collection of masters and doctoral works from the University of Brasília, which is similar to the local soil. Initial studies show that the concrete wall is the proper solution for this case, taking into account the technical, economic and deterministic analysis. On the other hand, in order to better analyze the statistical significance of the factor-of-safety factors obtained, a Monte Carlo analysis was performed for the concrete wall and two more initial solutions. A comparison between the statistical and risk results generated for the different solutions indicated that a Gabion solution would better fit the financial and technical feasibility of the project.
Abstract: In this paper, we consider the MU-MISO downlink scenario, under imperfect channel state information (CSI). The main issue in imperfect CSI is to keep the probability of each user achievable outage rate below the given threshold level. Such a rate outage constraints present significant and analytical challenges. There are many probabilistic methods are used to minimize the transmit optimization problem under imperfect CSI. Here, decomposition based large deviation inequality and Bernstein type inequality convex restriction methods are used to perform the optimization problem under imperfect CSI. These methods are used for achieving improved output quality and lower complexity. They provide a safe tractable approximation of the original rate outage constraints. Based on these method implementations, performance has been evaluated in the terms of feasible rate and average transmission power. The simulation results are shown that all the two methods offer significantly improved outage quality and lower computational complexity.
Abstract: Slope stability analyses are largely carried out by deterministic methods and evaluated through a single security factor. Although it is known that the geotechnical parameters can present great dispersal, such analyses are considered fixed and known. The probabilistic methods, in turn, incorporate the variability of input key parameters (random variables), resulting in a range of values of safety factors, thus enabling the determination of the probability of failure, which is an essential parameter in the calculation of the risk (probability multiplied by the consequence of the event). Among the probabilistic methods, there are three frequently used methods in geotechnical society: FOSM (First-Order, Second-Moment), Rosenblueth (Point Estimates) and Monte Carlo. This paper presents a comparison between the results from deterministic and probabilistic analyses (FOSM method, Monte Carlo and Rosenblueth) applied to a hypothetical slope. The end was held to evaluate the behavior of the slope and consequent risk analysis, which is used to calculate the risk and analyze their mitigation and control solutions. It can be observed that the results obtained by the three probabilistic methods were quite close. It should be noticed that the calculation of the risk makes it possible to list the priority to the implementation of mitigation measures. Therefore, it is recommended to do a good assessment of the geological-geotechnical model incorporating the uncertainty in viability, design, construction, operation and closure by means of risk management.
Abstract: In an electric power system, spinning reserve
requirements can be determined by using deterministic and/or
probabilistic measures. Although deterministic methods are usual in
many systems, application of probabilistic methods becomes
increasingly important in the new environment of the electric power
utility industry. This is because of the increased uncertainty
associated with competition. In this paper 1) a new probabilistic
method is presented which considers the reliability of transmission
system in a simplified manner and 2) deterministic and probabilistic
methods are compared. The studied methods are applied to the Roy
Billinton Test System (RBTS).