Fragility Analysis of Weir Structure Subjected to Flooding Water Damage

In this study, seepage analysis was performed by the level difference between upstream and downstream of weir structure for safety evaluation of weir structure against flooding. Monte Carlo Simulation method was employed by considering the probability distribution of the adjacent ground parameter, i.e., permeability coefficient of weir structure. Moreover, by using a commercially available finite element program (ABAQUS), modeling of the weir structure is carried out. Based on this model, the characteristic of water seepage during flooding was determined at each water level with consideration of the uncertainty of their corresponding permeability coefficient. Subsequently, fragility function could be constructed based on this response from numerical analysis; this fragility function results could be used to determine the weakness of weir structure subjected to flooding disaster. They can also be used as a reference data that can comprehensively predict the probability of failur,e and the degree of damage of a weir structure.

Considerations for Effectively Using Probability of Failure as a Means of Slope Design Appraisal for Homogeneous and Heterogeneous Rock Masses

Probability of failure (PF) often appears alongside factor of safety (FS) in design acceptance criteria for rock slope, underground excavation and open pit mine designs. However, the design acceptance criteria generally provide no guidance relating to how PF should be calculated for homogeneous and heterogeneous rock masses, or what qualifies a ‘reasonable’ PF assessment for a given slope design. Observational and kinematic methods were widely used in the 1990s until advances in computing permitted the routine use of numerical modelling. In the 2000s and early 2010s, PF in numerical models was generally calculated using the point estimate method. More recently, some limit equilibrium analysis software offer statistical parameter inputs along with Monte-Carlo or Latin-Hypercube sampling methods to automatically calculate PF. Factors including rock type and density, weathering and alteration, intact rock strength, rock mass quality and shear strength, the location and orientation of geologic structure, shear strength of geologic structure and groundwater pore pressure influence the stability of rock slopes. Significant engineering and geological judgment, interpretation and data interpolation is usually applied in determining these factors and amalgamating them into a geotechnical model which can then be analysed. Most factors are estimated ‘approximately’ or with allowances for some variability rather than ‘exactly’. When it comes to numerical modelling, some of these factors are then treated deterministically (i.e. as exact values), while others have probabilistic inputs based on the user’s discretion and understanding of the problem being analysed. This paper discusses the importance of understanding the key aspects of slope design for homogeneous and heterogeneous rock masses and how they can be translated into reasonable PF assessments where the data permits. A case study from a large open pit gold mine in a complex geological setting in Western Australia is presented to illustrate how PF can be calculated using different methods and obtain markedly different results. Ultimately sound engineering judgement and logic is often required to decipher the true meaning and significance (if any) of some PF results.

A Partially Accelerated Life Test Planning with Competing Risks and Linear Degradation Path under Tampered Failure Rate Model

In this paper, we propose a method to model the relationship between failure time and degradation for a simple step stress test where underlying degradation path is linear and different causes of failure are possible. It is assumed that the intensity function depends only on the degradation value. No assumptions are made about the distribution of the failure times. A simple step-stress test is used to shorten failure time of products and a tampered failure rate (TFR) model is proposed to describe the effect of the changing stress on the intensities. We assume that some of the products that fail during the test have a cause of failure that is only known to belong to a certain subset of all possible failures. This case is known as masking. In the presence of masking, the maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) of the model parameters are obtained through an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm by treating the causes of failure as missing values. The effect of incomplete information on the estimation of parameters is studied through a Monte-Carlo simulation. Finally, a real example is analyzed to illustrate the application of the proposed methods.

Estimation of the Mean of the Selected Population

Two normal populations with different means and same variance are considered, where the variance is known. The population with the smaller sample mean is selected. Various estimators are constructed for the mean of the selected normal population. Finally, they are compared with respect to the bias and MSE risks by the mehod of Monte-Carlo simulation and their performances are analysed with the help of graphs.

BER Performance of NLOS Underwater Wireless Optical Communication with Multiple Scattering

Recently, there is a lot of interest in the field of under water optical wireless communication for short range because of its high bandwidth. But in most of the previous works line of sight propagation or single scattering of photons only considered. In practical case this is not applicable because of beam blockage in underwater and multiple scattering also occurred during the photons propagation through water. In this paper we consider a non-line of sight underwater wireless optical communication system with multiple scattering and examine the performance of the system using monte carlo simulation. The distribution scattering angle of photons are modeled by Henyey-Greenstein method. The average bit error rate is calculated using on-off keying modulation for different water types.

Discrete Wavelet Transform Decomposition Level Determination Exploiting Sparseness Measurement

Discrete wavelet transform (DWT) has been widely adopted in biomedical signal processing for denoising, compression and so on. Choosing a suitable decomposition level (DL) in DWT is of paramount importance to its performance. In this paper, we propose to exploit sparseness of the transformed signals to determine the appropriate DL. Simulation results have shown that the sparseness of transformed signals after DWT increases with the increasing DLs. Additional Monte-Carlo simulation results have verified the effectiveness of sparseness measure in determining the DL.

Probabilistic Model Development for Project Performance Forecasting

In this paper, based on the past project cost and time performance, a model for forecasting project cost performance is developed. This study presents a probabilistic project control concept to assure an acceptable forecast of project cost performance. In this concept project activities are classified into sub-groups entitled control accounts. Then obtain the Stochastic S-Curve (SS-Curve), for each sub-group and the project SS-Curve is obtained by summing sub-groups- SS-Curves. In this model, project cost uncertainties are considered through Beta distribution functions of the project activities costs required to complete the project at every selected time sections through project accomplishment, which are extracted from a variety of sources. Based on this model, after a percentage of the project progress, the project performance is measured via Earned Value Management to adjust the primary cost probability distribution functions. Then, accordingly the future project cost performance is predicted by using the Monte-Carlo simulation method.

Suppression of Narrowband Interference in Impulse Radio Based High Data Rate UWB WPAN Communication System Using NLOS Channel Model

Study on suppression of interference in time domain equalizers is attempted for high data rate impulse radio (IR) ultra wideband communication system. The narrow band systems may cause interference with UWB devices as it is having very low transmission power and the large bandwidth. SRAKE receiver improves system performance by equalizing signals from different paths. This enables the use of SRAKE receiver techniques in IRUWB systems. But Rake receiver alone fails to suppress narrowband interference (NBI). A hybrid SRake-MMSE time domain equalizer is proposed to overcome this by taking into account both the effect of the number of rake fingers and equalizer taps. It also combats intersymbol interference. A semi analytical approach and Monte-Carlo simulation are used to investigate the BER performance of SRAKEMMSE receiver on IEEE 802.15.3a UWB channel models. Study on non-line of sight indoor channel models (both CM3 and CM4) illustrates that bit error rate performance of SRake-MMSE receiver with NBI performs better than that of Rake receiver without NBI. We show that for a MMSE equalizer operating at high SNR-s the number of equalizer taps plays a more significant role in suppressing interference.