Abstract: Since British established colonial settlements across the East Coast, Native Americans have suffered stark socio economic disparities in comparison to their neighboring communities. This paper employs the 1990, 2000, and 2010 United States Decennial Census to assess whether and to what extent the casino economy helped to close this socioeconomic gap between the Mohegan tribe and its surrounding community. These three Decennial Censuses cover two decades, from six years prior to the erection of Mohegan Sun casino to 14 years afterwards, including the Great Recession 2007-2009. Income, employment, education and housing parameters are selected as socio economic indicators. The profitable advent of the Mohegan Sun in 1996 dramatically improved the socio economic status of the Mohegan Tribe between 1990 and 2000. In fact, for most of these indicators––poverty, median household income, employment, home ownership, and car ownership––disparities shifted; tribal socioeconomic parameters improved from well below the level of New London County in 1990, to the same level or above the county rates in 2000. However, economic downturn in 2007-2009 Great Recession impacted Mohegan people remarkably. By 2010, disparities for household income, employment, home ownership, and car ownership returned. The casino bridged socio economic inequalities, but at the face of economic crises, the mono-product economy grew vulnerable.
Abstract: Forecasting the stock market is a very challenging task. Various economic indicators such as GDP, exchange rates, interest rates, and unemployment have a substantial impact on the stock market. Time series models are the traditional methods used to predict stock market changes. In this paper, a machine learning method, Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART) is used in predicting stock market indexes based on multiple economic indicators. BART can be used to model heterogeneous treatment effects, and thereby works well when models are misspecified. It also has the capability to handle non-linear main effects and multi-way interactions without much input from financial analysts. In this research, BART is proposed to provide a reliable prediction on day-to-day stock market activities. By comparing the analysis results from BART and with time series method, BART can perform well and has better prediction capability than the traditional methods.
Abstract: ‘Energy for all’, is a global issue of concern for the past many years. Despite the number of technological advancements and innovations, significant numbers of people are living without access to electricity around the world. India, an emerging economy, tops the list of nations having the maximum number of residents living off the grid, thus raising global attention in past few years to provide clean and sustainable energy access solutions to all of its residents. It is evident from developed economies that centralized planning and electrification alone is not sufficient for meeting energy security. Implementation of off-grid and consumer-driven energy models like Decentralized Renewable Energy (DRE) systems have played a significant role in meeting the national energy demand in developed nations. Cases of DRE systems have been reported in developing countries like India for the past few years. This paper attempts to profile the status of DRE projects in the Indian context with their scope and relevance to ensure universal electrification. Diversified cases of DRE projects, particularly solar, biomass and micro hydro are identified in different Indian states. Critical factors affecting the sustainability of DRE projects are extracted with their interlinkages in the context of developers, beneficiaries and promoters involved in such projects. Socio-techno-economic indicators are identified through similar cases in the context of DRE projects. Exploratory factor analysis is performed to evaluate the critical sustainability factors followed by regression analysis to establish the relationship between the dependent and independent factors. The generated EFA-Regression model provides a basis to develop the sustainability and replicability framework for broader coverage of DRE projects in developing nations in order to attain the goal of universal electrification with least carbon emissions.
Abstract: The study examines the socioeconomic impact of development of an advanced industry in Israel. The research method is based on data collected from the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics and from the National Insurance Institute (NII) databases, which provided information that allows to examine the Economic and Social Changes during the 1990s. The study examined the socioeconomic effects of the development of advanced industry in Israel. The research findings indicate that as a result of globalization processes, the weight of traditional industry began to diminish as a result of factory closures and the laying off of workers. These circumstances led to growing unemployment among the weaker groups in Israeli society, detracting from their income and thus increasing inequality among different socioeconomic groups in Israel and enhancement of social disparities.
Abstract: The exchange rate is a pivotal pricing instrument that simultaneously impacts various components of the economy. Depreciation of nominal exchange rate is export promoting, which might be a desired export-led growth policy, and particularly critical to closing-down the widening current account imbalance. However, negative effects resulting from high dollarization and high share of imported intermediate inputs can outweigh positive effect. The aim of this research is to quantify impact of change in nominal exchange rate and test contractionary depreciation hypothesis on Georgian economy using structural and Bayesian vector autoregression. According to the acquired results, appreciation of nominal exchange rate is expected to decrease inflation, monetary policy rate, interest rate on domestic currency loans and economic growth in the medium run; however, impact on economic growth in the short run is statistically not significant.
Abstract: Food deserts are a reality in some cities. These deserts can be described as a shortage of healthy food options within close proximity of consumers. The shortage in this case is typically facilitated by a lack of stores in an urban area that provide adequate fruit and vegetable choices. This study explores new avenues to better understand food deserts by examining modes of transportation that are available to shoppers or consumers, e.g. walking, automobile, or public transit. Further, this study is unique in that it not only explores the location of large grocery stores, but small grocery and convenience stores too. In this study, the relationship between some socio-economic indicators, such as personal income, are also explored to determine any possible association with food deserts. In addition, to help facilitate our understanding of food deserts, complex network spatial models that are built on adequate algorithms are used to investigate the possibility of food deserts in the city of Hamilton, Canada. It is found that Hamilton, Canada is adequate serviced by retailers who provide healthy food choices and that the food desert phenomena is almost absent.
Abstract: Since the 1980s, global tourism activity has consolidated worldwide to become an important economic contributor, and consequently, the sociocultural and environmental impacts are starting to become evidenced. This raises the need of discussing about actions for sustainable tourism that should be linked not only to the economy, but also to the environment and social aspects. The work that is going to be presented is part of a doctoral research project in Sciences undertaken at the Sao Paulo University, Brazil. It aims to analyze whether the monitoring of the tourism sector with a focus on sustainability is applicable or not, through those indicators, put in a case study in the Jalapão State Park (JSP) conservation unit, in the state of Tocantins, Brazil. This is a study of an interdisciplinary nature that had the deductive method as its guide. We concluded that the key points of the sustainable tourism, when analyzed with the focal point in environmental indicators, are an important evaluation and quantification tool of that activity in the study locus. It displayed itself as an adequate tool for monitoring, thus decoding, the main environmental impacts that occur in tourism regions and their intensity, which is made possible through analysis, and has the objective to trace ways to prevent and correct the presented impacts.
Abstract: The objective of this study is to analyze the evolution of some social and economic indicators of Mercosur´s economies from 1980 to 2012, based on the statistics of the Latin American Integration Association (LAIA). The objective is to observe if after the accession of these economies to Mercosur (the first accessions occurred in 1994) these indicators showed better performance, in order to demonstrate if economic integration contributed to improved trade, macroeconomic performance, and level of social and economic development of member countries. To this end, the methodologies used will be a literature review and descriptive statistics. The theoretical framework that guides the work are the theories of Integration: Classical Liberal, Marxist and structural-proactive. The results reveal that most social and economic indicators showed better performance in those economies that joined Mercosur after 1994. This work is the result of an investigation already completed.
Abstract: The Portuguese footwear industry had in the last five years a remarkable performance in the exportation values, the trade balance and others economic indicators. After a long period of difficulties and with a strong reduction of companies and employees since 1994 until 2009, the Portuguese footwear industry changed the strategy and is now a success case between the international players of footwear. Only the Italian industry sells footwear with a higher value than the Portuguese and the distance between them is decreasing year by year. This paper analyses how the Portuguese footwear companies innovate and make innovation, according the classification proposed by the Oslo Manual. Also, analyses the strategy follow in the innovation process and shows the linkage between the type of innovation and the strategy of innovation. The research methodology was qualitative and the strategy for data collection was the case study. The qualitative data will be analyzed with the MAXQDA software. The economic results of the footwear companies studied shows differences between all of them and these differences are related with the innovation strategy adopted. The companies focused in product and marketing innovation, oriented to their target market, have higher ratios “turnover per worker” than the companies focused in process innovation. However, all the footwear companies in this “low-tech” industry create value and contribute to a positive foreign trade of 1.310 million euros in 2013. The growth strategies implemented has the participation of the sectorial organizations in several innovative projects. And it’s obvious that cooperation between all of them is a critical element to the performance achieved by the companies and the innovation observed. The Portuguese footwear sector has in the last years an excellent performance (economic results, exportation values, trade balance, brands and international image) and his performance is strongly related with the strategy in innovation followed, the type of innovation and the networks in the cluster. A simplified model, called “Ace of Diamonds”, is proposed by the authors and explains the way how this performance was reached by the seven companies that participate in the study (two of them are the leaders in the setor), and if this model can be used in others traditional and “low-tech” industries.
Abstract: In this study, attempt has been made to investigate the
relationship specifically the causal relation between fund unit prices
of Islamic equity unit trust fund which measure by fund NAV and the
selected macro-economic variables of Malaysian economy by using
VECM causality test and Granger causality test. Monthly data has
been used from Jan, 2006 to Dec, 2012 for all the variables. The
findings of the study showed that industrial production index,
political election and financial crisis are the only variables having
unidirectional causal relationship with fund unit price. However the
global oil price is having bidirectional causality with fund NAV.
Thus, it is concluded that the equity unit trust fund industry in
Malaysia is an inefficient market with respect to the industrial
production index, global oil prices, political election and financial
crisis. However the market is approaching towards informational
efficiency at least with respect to four macroeconomic variables,
treasury bill rate, money supply, foreign exchange rate, and
corruption index.
Abstract: The concept of competitiveness is currently very
frequently used term. However, the interpretation of its essence is
different. In this paper, one of the many concepts of competitiveness
will be analyzed and that is macroeconomic competitiveness, which
is understood as a process, which is based on the productivity growth
through the growth of key macroeconomic indicators such as
standards of living and employment, where all of these variables
must have a sustainable basis. Given the competition is a relative
quantity it must be constantly compared with the development of
competitiveness in other economies or regions. And this comparison
method is also used in the article that compares the macrocompetitiveness
of selected economies of the European Economic
Area – the Czech Republic, Poland, Austria, Switzerland and
Germany. The aim of the paper is to verify the hypothesis concerning
the direct correlation between the size of the economy and its
competitiveness.
Abstract: After recession that began in 2007 in the United States and subsequently spilled over the Europe we could expect recovery of economic growth. According to the last estimation of economic progress of European countries, this recovery is not strong enough. Among others, it will depend on economic policy, where and in which way, the economic indicators will proceed. Economic theories postulate that the economic subjects prefer stably, continual economic policy without repeated and strong fluctuations. This policy is perceived as support of economic growth. Mostly in crises period, when the government must cope with consequences of recession, the economic policy becomes unpredictable for many subjects and economic policy uncertainty grows, which have negative influence on economic growth. The aim of this paper is to use panel regression to prove or disprove this hypothesis on the example of five largest European economies in the period 2008–2012.
Abstract: The paper proposes an approach to ranking a set of potential countries to invest taking into account the investor point of view about importance of different economic indicators. For the goal, a ranking algorithm that contributes to rational decision making is proposed. The described algorithm is based on combinatorial optimization modeling and repeated multi-criteria tasks solution. The final result is list of countries ranked in respect of investor preferences about importance of economic indicators for investment attractiveness. Different scenarios are simulated conforming to different investors preferences. A numerical example with real dataset of indicators is solved. The numerical testing shows the applicability of the described algorithm. The proposed approach can be used with any sets of indicators as ranking criteria reflecting different points of view of investors.
Abstract: This paper examines the role of telecommunications in sustainable development of urban, rural and remote communities in the Northern Territory of Australia through the theoretical lens of Social Capital. Social Capital is a relatively new construct and is rapidly gaining interest among policy makers, politicians and researchers as a means to both describe and understand social and economic development. Increasingly, the concept of Social Capital, as opposed to the traditional economic indicators, is seen as a more accurate measure of well-being. Whilst the essence of Social Capital is quality social relations, the concept intersects with telecommunications and Information Communications Technology (ICT) in a number of ways. The potential of ICT to disseminate information quickly, to reach vast numbers of people simultaneously and to include the previously excluded, is immense. However, the exact nature of the relationship is not clearly defined. This paper examines the nexus between social relations of mutual benefit, telecommunications access and sustainable development. A mixed methodological approach was used to test the hypothesis that No relationship exists between Social Capital and access to telecommunications services and facilities. Four communities, which included two urban, a rural and a remote Indigenous community in the Northern Territory of Australia are the focus of this research paper.
Abstract: This article considers with the influence of selected economic indicators for the development of the Zlin region. Development of the region is mainly influenced by business entities which are located in the region, as well as investors who contribute to the development of regions. For the development of the region it is necessary for skilled workers remain in the region and not to leave these skilled workers. The above-mentioned and other factors are affecting the development of each region.
Abstract: Disparity in India has been persisting since independence causing many socioeconomic problems and its removal has become the most prime objective of the planned development in India. Hence the paper attempts to study the disparity at State and Regional level and gives inclusive planning guidelines to achieve balanced regional development. At State level, the relative socioeconomic backwardness of Vidarbha Region based on Interregional analysis using selected indicators like Foreign Direct Investment, Human Development Index, Per Capita District Domestic Product has been assessed and broad guidelines have been proposed. In the later part at Regional level, the relative backwardness of districts based on Intraregional analysis using socioeconomic indicators has been assessed within Nagpur sub region and factors responsible for backwardness & disparity have been indicated. The policy guidelines for Identified sub region have been proposed based on the most significant factor and their extent of relationship explaining backwardness Nagpur sub region.
Abstract: This study investigates the relationship between 10
year bond value, Yen/U.S dollar exchange rate, non-farm payrolls (all
employs) and crude oil to U.S. Dow Jones Sustainability Index. A
GARCH model is used to test these relationships for the period
January 1st 1999 to January 31st 2008 using monthly data. Results
show that an increase of the 10 year bond and non farm payrolls (all
employs) lead to an increase of the D.J.S.I returns. On the contrary
the volatility of the Yen/U.S dollar exchange rates as well as the
increase of crude oil returns has negative effects on the U.S D.J.S.I
returns. This study aims at assisting investors to understand the
influences certain macroeconomic indicators have on the companies-
stock returns as reported by the D.J.S.I.
Abstract: It is suggested to evaluate environmental performance
of energy sector using Data Envelopment Analysis with nondiscretionary
factors (DEA-ND) with relative indicators as inputs and
outputs. The latter allows for comparison of the objects essentially
different in size. Inclusion of non-discretionary factors serves
separation of the indicators that are beyond the control of the objects.
A virtual perfect object comprised of maximal outputs and minimal
inputs was added to the group of actual ones. In this setting, explicit
solution of the DEA-ND problem was obtained. Energy sector of the
United States was analyzed using suggested approach for the period
of 1980 – 2006 with expected values of economic indicators for 2030
used for forming the perfect object. It was obtained that
environmental performance has been increasing steadily for the
period from 7.7% through 50.0% but still remains well below the
prospected level
Abstract: An integrated Artificial Neural Network- Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is presented for analyzing global electricity consumption. To aim this purpose, following steps are done: STEP 1: in the first step, PSO is applied in order to determine world-s oil, natural gas, coal and primary energy demand equations based on socio-economic indicators. World-s population, Gross domestic product (GDP), oil trade movement and natural gas trade movement are used as socio-economic indicators in this study. For each socio-economic indicator, a feed-forward back propagation artificial neural network is trained and projected for future time domain. STEP 2: in the second step, global electricity consumption is projected based on the oil, natural gas, coal and primary energy consumption using PSO. global electricity consumption is forecasted up to year 2040.
Abstract: The problem of Small Area Estimation (SAE) is complex because of various information sources and insufficient data. In this paper, an approach for SAE is presented for decision-making at national, regional and local level. We propose an Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictor (EBLUP) as an estimator in order to combine several information sources to evaluate various indicators. First, we present the urban audit project and its environmental, social and economic indicators. Secondly, we propose an approach for decision making in order to estimate indicators. An application is used to validate the theoretical proposal. Finally, a decision support system is presented based on open-source environment.