Estimation of the Drought Index Based on the Climatic Projections of Precipitation of the Uruguay River Basin
The impact the climate change is not recent, the main variable in the hydrological cycle is the sequence and shortage of a drought, which has a significant impact on the socioeconomic, agricultural and environmental spheres. This study aims to characterize and quantify, based on precipitation climatic projections, the rainy and dry events in the region of the Uruguay River Basin, through the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The database is the image that is part of the Intercomparison of Model Models, Phase 5 (CMIP5), which provides condition prediction models, organized according to the Representative Routes of Concentration (CPR). Compared to the normal set of climates in the Uruguay River Watershed through precipitation projections, seasonal precipitation increases for all proposed scenarios, with a low climate trend. From the data of this research, the idea is that this article can be used to support research and the responsible bodies can use it as a subsidy for mitigation measures in other hydrographic basins.
[1] Nobre, C. A.; Sampaio, G.; Salazar, L. 2007. Climate change and the Amazon. Science and Culture, São Paulo, v. 59, n.3. Available At: <http://cienciaecultura.bvs.br/scielo.php?pid=S0009-67252007000300012&script=sci_arttext&tlng=en>. Accessed on: 19 Aug. 2017.
[2] Toledo, B. Climate Observatory brings together Brazilian IPCC scientists to discuss conclusions and projections of the new report. 2014. Available at: <http://www.observatoriodoclima.eco.br/observatorio-do-clima-reune-cientias-brasilicos-do-ipcc-para-discutir-conclusoes-e-projecoes-do-novo-relatorio/ >. Accessed on: 07 Sep. 2017.
[3] CPTEC/INPE - Center for Time Forecasting and Climate Studies, National Institute of Spacial Research. 2011. Available at: <http://www.cptec.inpe.br/>. Accessed on: 06 Nov. 2017.
[4] Wilhite, D. A.; Glantz, M. H. Understanding the drought phenomenon: The role definitions. In: Wilhite D. A.; Easterling, W.E.; Wood, D. W. Planning for a reduction of societal vulnerability. Boulder: Westview Press, p.11-14, 1987
[5] McKee, T. B.; Doesken, N.J.; Kleist, J. 1993. The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. Eighth Conference on Applied Climatology. American Meteorological Society, p. 179-184, 1993.
[6] Blain, G. C. Statistical considerations related to six monthly air temperature series of the Department of Agriculture and Supply of the State of São Paulo. Brazilian Journal of Meteorology, São José dos Campos, v.26, p.279-296, 2011.
[7] Hayes, M. J. et al. Monitoring the 1996 drought using the Standardized Precipitation Index. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, v.80, n.3, p.429-438, 1999.
[8] Brazil. Decree No. 5,163, July 30, 2004, Regulates the sale of electric energy, the process of granting concessions and authorizations for the generation of electric energy, and other measures. Available at: <http://www.planalto.gov.br/ccivil_03/_ato2004-2006/2004/decreto/d5163.HTM>. Accessed on: 20 Aug. 2017.
[9] Andreolli, I. Forecasting of real-time flow in the Uruguay River based on the weather forecast. Dissertation (Master's). IPH, UFRGS, Porto Alegre, 2003.
[10] Brazil. Ministry of the Environment. Notebook of the Hydrographic Region of Uruguay. 2006. Available at: <http://mma.gov.br/estruturas/161/_publicacao/161_publicacao03032011023025.pdf>. Accessed on: 27 Aug. 2017.
[11] ANA - National Agency of Waters. Hydrographic Region of Uruguay. Available at: <http://www2.ana.gov.br/Paginas/portais/bacias/uruguai.aspx>. Accessed on: 27 Aug. 2017.
[12] MAP, Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply. Trend and projection of the air temperature for the State of Goiás. Embrapa Rice and Beans. Santo Antônio de Goiás - GO, Brazil. 2018.
[13] INMET, National Institute of Metereology. Norma Climatológicas of Brazil. Available at: <<http://www.inmet.gov.br/portal/index.php?r=clima/normaisclimatologicas>. Accessed on: 16 Apr. 2018.
[14] Souza, E. B. GrADS - Grid Analysis and Display System Fundamentals and Basic Programming. Federal University of Pará, 2004. Available at: <http://www.dca.iag.usp.br/www/material/ritaynoue/aca522/referencias/apostilagrads.pdf>. Accessed on: 27 Aug. 2017.
[15] Andreolli, I. Forecasting of real-time flow in the Uruguay River based on the weather forecast. Dissertation (Master's). IPH, UFRGS, Porto Alegre, 2003.
[1] Nobre, C. A.; Sampaio, G.; Salazar, L. 2007. Climate change and the Amazon. Science and Culture, São Paulo, v. 59, n.3. Available At: <http://cienciaecultura.bvs.br/scielo.php?pid=S0009-67252007000300012&script=sci_arttext&tlng=en>. Accessed on: 19 Aug. 2017.
[2] Toledo, B. Climate Observatory brings together Brazilian IPCC scientists to discuss conclusions and projections of the new report. 2014. Available at: <http://www.observatoriodoclima.eco.br/observatorio-do-clima-reune-cientias-brasilicos-do-ipcc-para-discutir-conclusoes-e-projecoes-do-novo-relatorio/ >. Accessed on: 07 Sep. 2017.
[3] CPTEC/INPE - Center for Time Forecasting and Climate Studies, National Institute of Spacial Research. 2011. Available at: <http://www.cptec.inpe.br/>. Accessed on: 06 Nov. 2017.
[4] Wilhite, D. A.; Glantz, M. H. Understanding the drought phenomenon: The role definitions. In: Wilhite D. A.; Easterling, W.E.; Wood, D. W. Planning for a reduction of societal vulnerability. Boulder: Westview Press, p.11-14, 1987
[5] McKee, T. B.; Doesken, N.J.; Kleist, J. 1993. The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. Eighth Conference on Applied Climatology. American Meteorological Society, p. 179-184, 1993.
[6] Blain, G. C. Statistical considerations related to six monthly air temperature series of the Department of Agriculture and Supply of the State of São Paulo. Brazilian Journal of Meteorology, São José dos Campos, v.26, p.279-296, 2011.
[7] Hayes, M. J. et al. Monitoring the 1996 drought using the Standardized Precipitation Index. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, v.80, n.3, p.429-438, 1999.
[8] Brazil. Decree No. 5,163, July 30, 2004, Regulates the sale of electric energy, the process of granting concessions and authorizations for the generation of electric energy, and other measures. Available at: <http://www.planalto.gov.br/ccivil_03/_ato2004-2006/2004/decreto/d5163.HTM>. Accessed on: 20 Aug. 2017.
[9] Andreolli, I. Forecasting of real-time flow in the Uruguay River based on the weather forecast. Dissertation (Master's). IPH, UFRGS, Porto Alegre, 2003.
[10] Brazil. Ministry of the Environment. Notebook of the Hydrographic Region of Uruguay. 2006. Available at: <http://mma.gov.br/estruturas/161/_publicacao/161_publicacao03032011023025.pdf>. Accessed on: 27 Aug. 2017.
[11] ANA - National Agency of Waters. Hydrographic Region of Uruguay. Available at: <http://www2.ana.gov.br/Paginas/portais/bacias/uruguai.aspx>. Accessed on: 27 Aug. 2017.
[12] MAP, Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply. Trend and projection of the air temperature for the State of Goiás. Embrapa Rice and Beans. Santo Antônio de Goiás - GO, Brazil. 2018.
[13] INMET, National Institute of Metereology. Norma Climatológicas of Brazil. Available at: <<http://www.inmet.gov.br/portal/index.php?r=clima/normaisclimatologicas>. Accessed on: 16 Apr. 2018.
[14] Souza, E. B. GrADS - Grid Analysis and Display System Fundamentals and Basic Programming. Federal University of Pará, 2004. Available at: <http://www.dca.iag.usp.br/www/material/ritaynoue/aca522/referencias/apostilagrads.pdf>. Accessed on: 27 Aug. 2017.
[15] Andreolli, I. Forecasting of real-time flow in the Uruguay River based on the weather forecast. Dissertation (Master's). IPH, UFRGS, Porto Alegre, 2003.
@article{"International Journal of Earth, Energy and Environmental Sciences:80002", author = "José Leandro Melgar Néris and Claudinéia Brazil and Luciane Teresa Salvi and Isabel Cristina Damin", title = "Estimation of the Drought Index Based on the Climatic Projections of Precipitation of the Uruguay River Basin", abstract = "The impact the climate change is not recent, the main variable in the hydrological cycle is the sequence and shortage of a drought, which has a significant impact on the socioeconomic, agricultural and environmental spheres. This study aims to characterize and quantify, based on precipitation climatic projections, the rainy and dry events in the region of the Uruguay River Basin, through the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The database is the image that is part of the Intercomparison of Model Models, Phase 5 (CMIP5), which provides condition prediction models, organized according to the Representative Routes of Concentration (CPR). Compared to the normal set of climates in the Uruguay River Watershed through precipitation projections, seasonal precipitation increases for all proposed scenarios, with a low climate trend. From the data of this research, the idea is that this article can be used to support research and the responsible bodies can use it as a subsidy for mitigation measures in other hydrographic basins.
", keywords = "Drought index, climatic projections, precipitation of the Uruguay River Basin, Standardized Precipitation Index.", volume = "14", number = "11", pages = "318-6", }
