Abstract: The Greek Energy Market is structured as a mandatory pool where the producers make their bid offers in day-ahead basis. The System Operator solves an optimization routine aiming at the minimization of the cost of produced electricity. The solution of the optimization problem leads to the calculation of the System Marginal Price (SMP). Accurate forecasts of the SMP can lead to increased profits and more efficient portfolio management from the producer`s perspective. Aim of this study is to provide a comparative analysis of various machine learning models such as artificial neural networks and neuro-fuzzy models for the prediction of the SMP of the Greek market. Machine learning algorithms are favored in predictions problems since they can capture and simulate the volatilities of complex time series.
Abstract: With the continuous increment of smart meter installations across the globe, the need for processing of the load data is evident. Clustering-based load profiling is built upon the utilization of unsupervised machine learning tools for the purpose of formulating the typical load curves or load profiles. The most commonly used algorithm in the load profiling literature is the K-means. While the algorithm has been successfully tested in a variety of applications, its drawback is the strong dependence in the initialization phase. This paper proposes a novel modified form of the K-means that addresses the aforementioned problem. Simulation results indicate the superiority of the proposed algorithm compared to the K-means.