Abstract: This paper presents a methodology for probabilistic
assessment of bearing capacity and prediction of failure mechanism
of masonry vaults at the ultimate state with consideration of the
natural variability of Young’s modulus of stones. First, the
computation model is explained. The failure mode corresponds to the
four-hinge mechanism. Based on this consideration, the study of a
vault composed of 16 segments is presented. The Young’s modulus of
the segments is considered as random variable defined by a mean
value and a coefficient of variation. A relationship linking the vault
bearing capacity to the voussoirs modulus variation is proposed. The
most probable failure mechanisms, in addition to that observed in the
deterministic case, are identified for each variability level as well as
their probability of occurrence. The results show that the mechanism
observed in the deterministic case has decreasing probability of
occurrence in terms of variability, while the number of other
mechanisms and their probability of occurrence increases with the
coefficient of variation of Young’s modulus. This means that if a
significant change in the Young’s modulus of the segments is proven,
taking it into account in computations becomes mandatory, both for
determining the vault bearing capacity and for predicting its failure
mechanism.